After almost a month and half falling, Shanghai steel from 4800 yuan/ton high fall to near 3800 yuan/ton, plunged 1000 yuan per ton, drop as much as 20%, the current finally "back", bounce back to 4000 yuan/ton pass above, for investors, what exactly is the copy or meet high sell empty? Fundamentally, steel price future still not optimistic.
As inventory, iron ore slump
Because of the domestic iron ore inventory as high as one hundred million tons, setting a new record, and domestic estate control not only faced the deepening and the tightening of funds, the debt crisis and influence do not eliminate, the risk of inventory broke out. Not only CVRD cut quarter active iron ore prices about 8%, and 63.5% in late October India powder grinding quotations for us $133 / mt, and gradually approximation last year, the lowest price is $123 / mt, than late September fell $47 / tons, down 30%, and the lowest since nearly 15 months. Because of the high stock pressure and buy or not to buy the market fall habit,in short-term iron ore prices is difficult to change, support line will be further cost down.
Downstream demand for broken
Previously hope in the security room construction steel demand great expectations or pull will gradually become nearly impossible, housing and urban and rural construction ministry announced 10, at the end of September, the town affordable housing and home improvement shantytown has commenced 9.86 million sets, starts up to 98%, from the years 10 million set of targets near at hand. This means that security room construction will slow start, and the latest economic data showed that the fixed assets investment and real estate industry all appear different degree of decline, car, home electrical appliances industry also change the scenery of the last year, downstream demand the ailing situation is expected to continue. And going into the traditional endorsement "winter", part of the north resources will move south, will further repression steel price. The more important is pushed up prices of direct power--and capital, is still facing the "moderate tightening monetary policy" magic spells.
Steel support into production
The falling price of steel has prompted steel production maintenance stable to fall. According to statistics steel association, October sinosteel association member daily output for 1.5882 million tons of crude steel and ten-day annulus comparing reduce 3.32%; Estimated mid-november national crude steel daily output of 1.7998 million tons, the ten-day annulus comparing reduced by 2.94%. Anyone who opted to review this year July 11 letter released the backward productivity list this year, out of 31.22 million tons to iron, steel 27.94 million tons, which once ten months of yield to see, don't reduce the current situation of the increase will be the fourth quarter to do a lot of stress reduction, the market outlook for steel price will form must support.
From the foregoing, although bad elements are still leading endorsement, but investors should not be blind kill cheapen, according to the technical analysis, 1201 agreement above 4200 yuan/ton pressure great, 38.2% gold cent secant 4260 yuan/ton is also a crush, investors should stay steel price rebound when high again to sell empty, and focus on the strength of steel production of steel price influence, below 4000 yuan/ton, 3800 yuan/ton all have strong support
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