Dollar bulls star adjustment.
For more than ten years, in the stock and real estate markets such as good time about the dollar's bad news. Investors tend to use the dollar as a riskier markets jackets in storms.
, but, now, rather than as a hiding place, the dollar benefited from the stock market surged to a record high, the improvement of the U.S. economic data. The dollar to touch a little bit, from a seven-month high, against a basket of currencies.dxy last Thursday, the dow Jones industrial average (DJI) rise and even hit a record high, while interest rates at a record low.
For example has gained fairly stable, the dollar against the yen. In January, the yen traded at $86.67, trading at $96.06 on Thursday. Also, sterling decreased from 1.62 to 1.62 us dollar so far this year.
These actions show that the dollar has entered a bull cycles for many years, it also marks a big change in his behavior to other asset classes.
"Of course, all works are slowly into the bull market of the dollar, paley wu Mr Deaton said," Boston pioneer investment company's currency, the dollar to $20.4 billion in assets under management at the end of last year.
Beyond $8 9 G - 10 currency so far this year. Political uncertainty in Italy to reignite the fear of the euro zone's debt crisis continues. Weak economic growth in Japan and Britain's aggressive monetary easing the prospect of driving the yen and the pound to its lowest level for many years.
To be sure, some warned that the spending cuts and economic growth from Washington, the fed has pledged to keep interest rates low, caused negative influence for the foreseeable future.
However, capital flows and futures position proved U.S. assets.
About $10 billion in 2013 to $15 billion in cross-border capital flows into the us stock market tracking, net neutral level in recent years, according to Nomura (Nomura Securities). Activities increase the futures speculator bets against the dollar.
And the stock is not the only American assets drawn on the overseas capital. Recycling of commercial real estate market rebound, trading after the 2009 crisis low more than 4 times, and attract foreign investment.
In 2012, foreign buyers purchase commercial property totaled $2.418 billion, according to the analysis of real estate capital, commercial real estate market tracking. This is rose 1.6% from the previous year, the highest annual total since 2007, a year, the dollar index fell 8.4%.
Another undercurrent is shrink America's current-account deficit, America's import and export of goods and services and money transfers, the difference between how much the United States relies on foreign lenders, to support its economic growth and measures.
Gap, a major headwinds for narrowed to $110.4 billion in the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.8%, from 6.5% of gross domestic product, at the peak of 2005. Analysts expect a shortage of about 2.5% this year and next year.
Jen (Stephen Jen), london-based hedge fund, managing partner at SLJ macro partners, this confirms a long-held theory is that the dollar is better than that of the United States leads the world in both fall into a deep recession or a sustained recovery.
Kernel development and Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), the economist of Yale's theory, known as "dollar smile", because it created for the United States on the relative growth curve of u-shaped line drawing. High coupling in the global economy will reach $slots smile almost no difference between and economic growth.
"Dollar seems to have started after the federal reserve in the past few years by vulgar smiled, said:" benevolence, he argues that the yuan is undervalued, "there could have been rose broadly for a wide range of currencies".
Responsibility for NO MORE
Good appetite for overseas investors in American dollar assets and stock market rebound, in 2013. Foreigners money poured into stocks in recent months, and reduced demand for foreign assets in the United States, is partly due to the economic outlook improved.
25 days on Thursday the dollar index and the correlation between the S&P 500 index is 0.53, so the two indicators were more frequent in tandem. At the end of 2012, the correlation coefficient for - 0.9, is almost a perfect negative correlation.
Had net inflows of U.S. stock markets have risen sharply in the second half of 2013. 4 months moving average net inflows of $1.7 billion to $, in 2012, the highest since January 2008, according to Nomura (Nomura Securities).
Nomura securities in New York, global head of fx strategy, Nordvig says is significant, because it is not a response to the risk aversion across borders, shift in favour of the us stock market.
"The basic trend began to be valued by flows of private dollars," he said. "In the past, this has always been important, the direction of the dollar. Therefore, people should pay attention to."
Investors are already accustomed to the hiding place of the dollar, as its final big rebound came, when the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. But two big bull market - $1995-2000 and 1980-1985 - a good time to stock, Citigroup (Citigroup) currency strategist in New York, Greg Anderson, head of North America.
Betting against the us dollar
Speculators to push the dollar bet for a third straight week, to $2.357 billion on March 5, the end of the week, commodity futures trading commission data showed. This is still below the highs of nearly $40 billion in June, and suggested location is far away from extreme levels.
, of course, this is not to say that in the short term, the dollar will not be able to shake it. Tied to the sequestration of deep cuts in government spending could stifle economic activity later this year. For all the fanfare behind the recent moves, the dollar index is still more than in the summer of 2012 levels, and previous rally was short-lived.
In addition, major initiatives, the dollar could still need a couple of months, until the federal reserve sent a clear hint that it intends to taper the bond purchases.
 



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