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Analysis: French early strike shakes up Mali intervention plan

The original schedule, 3300 west African troops and western logistics, financial and intellectual support AFISMA intervention force did not foresee deployment before September, in order to have time to make full preparation.
But now has been to France help Mali government appealed to accelerate, post mobile after islamic militants threatened to last week in the middle of the garrison town mopti and Sevare, its main airport.
French airplanes and helicopters hit the high position in the islamic and other rebels occupied town, west Africa regional group of the economic community of west African states now fall over each other to forces on the ground, put forward questions in Mali, long-term task.
"Rushed into the intervention, now provides a shaky ground as the mission," Martin van Foley, says, researchers in Africa research center in Leiden.
"But don't do anything would be a right choice, and added:" whoever Foley's, who also wrote about the United States military academy, west point to fight terrorism center.
Most experts believe that thousands of soldiers - a hybrid of family of tuareg rebels, "base" organization islamists and foreign jihad - in a desolate desert and mountain battlefield Texas size is a huge military challenge.
"A huge, difficult task," it is the United States of Africa, the state council leading cadres in the cloth lu Kitty, how to evaluate the Mali, the economic community of west African states and its western Allies facing task, he said late October in London Chatham research institute.
Said: "this is a very difficult terrain, it is a vast endless. It will take a long time to receive and keep the cloth Kitty, a former soldier, who added full scale Mali intervention will be" very expensive "and last few months rather than weeks.
The United States and the United Nations have emphasized the international community support Mali mission should be "leading Africa, the continent has" the political process, and accompanied by propitiated split SaHeLe state, once a democratic and stable lighthouse.
But with the French special forces and plane, fighting islamists, French defense minister, let - yves le Drian announced that France "no matter where found that" the war on terror, Mali operating time is a by the French leadership program.
French President francois Mr Lande take great pains to hide his country rapid military action mantle, December, and the UN security council resolution authorizing the deployment of large AFISMA strength.
The same resolution set to malian key "reference", including a political agreement, and to verify the training - including human rights course - and abuse Mali army war footing and Africa intervention forces. But these are not completed.
Whoever Foley, says: ", Mali army is still completely lost their cool, pointing to the loss of key position, including Konna, because last week in French support counterattack back.
"Ground attack" is the key
French country's most advanced "wind" fighter last Sunday pound rebel positions around is high, the islamists hold of the north's largest cities, such as deployed hundreds of troops in southern capital Bamako, Mali central.
"My first impression is that this is a very dangerous situation emergency patch, mann said:" Gregory, especially in Africa French country and Mali, who specialized in Columbia University associate professor of history.
Mann said "ground attack", will be the key - how fast, effective French support Mali army and the economic community of west African states Allies follow up, trying to recapture the main rebel stronghold in the north of the air - high, timbuktu and base dall.
"Now, our cause relief, but not optimistic," he added.
In the northern town of islamic under the control of decline, march in Bamako at the military coup caused tuareg rebels who led, occupied the north and west African country split in two.
Security experts say, islamic rebel forces, experienced al qaeda in the islamic maghreb (AQIM) fighters, including hardcore, it is possible to fight the head of the joint west Africa total body/Mali army team, is expected to more than 6000 soldiers final comprehensive deployment.
Rather than trying to to protect high, timbuktu and base dall, Islam, melt to northern Mali inaccessible desert and rock near the fortress, such as northeast rebels occupied city base dale's adela's DES Ifhogas range.
Allied Algeria leading islamic maghreb al-qaeda is Arab countries dominated MUJAO pie and malian tuareg rebels family of Ann sall delicacies leadership team, by experienced tuareg rebels and politicians of galilee allawi AG.
"AQIM or MUJAO significant failure ground intervention is unlikely to lead to" violence risk prediction, headquartered in Britain's sole analysis consulting company, deputy director of the Richard Jackson, west Africa islamic jihad socialist January report wrote.
Exclusive analysis estimated AQIM, Ann sall delicacies and MUJAO's comprehensive strength, to 3000 fighter.
"Because of rebel forces and the size of the occupied territories, military action may continue for a long time," Jackson wrote in a report.
"Chaos of hailing"
Islamic maghreb al-qaida "funding and equipped", describes the head of the U.S. Africa command general carter ham, like the 4 x4s and pickup truck, some with heavy weapons, in Africa SaHeLe desert combat staple food with mobile column from Mauritania to Chad and somalia.
However, these very easily in the open desert and shrubs from France gazelle helicopters and "wind" fighter against.
"The islamists have air defense weapon remains to be seen," mann said, he can see the report, they have anti-aircraft artillery, and even surface to air missile.



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