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Coup may give Egypt window to tackle economic problems

President Mohammed Mursi resignation could give the Egyptian economy since the 2011 revolution the best chance to escape the downward spiral of currency devaluations, capital flight and crumbling state finances.
Mursi's departure, who was widely accused of economic conditions, will not provide any dangerously low foreign exchange reserves, a ballooning budget deficit and high unemployment issues, such as quick or simple fix.
However, many businessmen and economists hope that the appointment of a technocratic management, orderly resolution of these problems, while attracting a number of investors and money have fled the country.
"I think, said:" Egypt will begin to take very strong measures to strengthen the economy ...... I think a lot of investment in MEDHAT 哈利勒拉亚 Holdings Chairman, Egyptian IT companies.
Khalil predicted that Egypt will be in six months out of the economic crisis, the most - most foreign economists considered too optimistic forecasts. But this optimism has increased by about $ 320 million, the value of the stock market on Thursday, as the main stock index rose 7.3%.
Particularly strong Ezz Steel, whose former owners of former President Hosni Mubarak's leadership of the party officials for political reasons, such as that suffered under the management of Mursi company's shares.
Bond prices rose sharply in Egypt, the Egyptian pound black market exchange rate to the official exchange rate discount narrowed - a sign that traders believe that there may be more capital inflows into the country.
Farah Akram cells, oxygen consulting, Cairo, founder of the company on digital content, said he has been thinking about leaving Egypt, but now intends to stay. Other traders make the same decision, he said.
"In the short-term and long-term, I see what is happening in Egypt, last night on the economy and investment will have a positive impact."
Technocrats
According to Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (Muslim Brotherhood) new powers, economic turmoil is indecision and unskilled management results. After the revolution in 2011, successive governments to attract experienced technocrats, who worry about being contaminated an unpopular ruling military committee or by the ideology of Islamic brothers in trouble.
Outpouring of public anger over the past few weeks has been largely cleared brothers attached to a military-backed government of shame, traders said.
"None of this is on the table, so I think that anyone who is asked to join the cabinet will not hesitate," said Karim Helal, ADI capital chairman of the Egyptian Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank's investment banking division .
, Who headed the UN nuclear agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, is a favorite, was named head of a transitional government to prepare for elections.
Praise, won the army and more people successfully overthrew Mursi may give transitional government as an opportunity to promote the painful economic reforms, successive governments shied away from taking a window.
Mursi government has run out of cash, in part because state spending expensive to eat more than one fifth of gasoline and other fuel subsidies. Cash crunch led to rolling blackouts and queues mains gas stations, increasing with his brother's anger.
If it can improve the energy supply situation, the new government may be able to prove that the state budget cuts in public subsidies for the part repaired.
"Simon says," This may make it easier to promote energy subsidy reform: If you explain to the public that they may have to pay more, but this fuel will be available at that price with a local investment bank EFG Hermes kitchen, a strategic home.
FINANCIAL AID
Whether the new government's policy, it is possible to remain in Egypt dangerously dependent on foreign aid to finance its external deficit two years.
Raza Agha, finance company VTB Capital in London, economists estimated that Egypt will need $ 1.95 billion in external financing in the year to June 2014, to cover maturing debt and the dollar trade in goods and services 540 000 000 dollar deficit.
This estimate assuming no more capital flight, which may trigger, for example, if the Muslim Brotherhood turned violent elements in its resignation.
"Currency crisis could make things worse than they already are Egyptian imports much of its basic food needs, food price inflation will rise, which could lead to more poverty and fad already highly polarized country," Investment ING Bank, wrote in a research report.
Many investors hope the new government will agree on a value of $ 480 million in emergency loans, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mursi government initialed in November last year, but never ratified. By ElBaradei for Egypt sign an agreement.
May be wrong, but I hope as soon as possible IMF agreement. In order to avoid seeming to endorse a military coup, and to ensure that the loan transaction, the difficult economic reforms in Egypt has broad political support, International Monetary Fund (IMF) may wait to negotiate an elected government - it may be a few held before May vote.
IMF loan will further delay Egypt more dependent on wealthy donors in the Gulf. Qatar, providing $ 750 million in grants and low-interest loans, the government has been closely Muslim Brotherhood (Muslim Brotherhood), and you can view the Mursi step down diplomatic setbacks.
So far, there is no indication, however, the Qatar intends to pull its money out of Egypt. Qatar's official news agency said on Thursday that the Gulf States would "continue to respect" the will of the Egyptian people and the efforts to strengthen relations.
At the same time, Egypt may be able to rely on more aid from two other rich Gulf countries have long distrust of the Muslim Brotherhood, and therefore have a strong political interests and to ensure success in the Egyptian government after the brothers.
Within a few hours after the coup, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Egypt congratulated the new leader. UAE in 2011 pledged $ 300 million U.S. dollars of aid to Egypt, but the money did not deliver, the UAE now have more reasons to release.
Egypt "is now in a better position to receive assistance from Saudi Arabia and the UAE's brother no longer exists, said:" The United States regional economist Farouk Soussa.
"Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have promised significant financial assistance to Egypt, Egypt will receive now, it is more likely."
 



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