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Insight: The big money bails on Argentina - again

Argentina in 2001-02 fiscal meltdown in epic after more than ten years, many investors eagerly to the door again.
From the great Chinese and Brazilian mining company vale do like Rio Doce company SA, small business owners and depositors, fear of the new crisis has cancel the investment and cash suitcase out of the country.
Massive outflows, has been limited to leftist President cristina fernandez's capital controls, threatened destruction of Latin America's third largest economy, and even leave short hard currency and new employment opportunities.
Fundamental problems ranging from fernandez hostile treatment of the private sector, with serious financial distortions, such as parallel currency, feel generally, Argentina is a periodic spasms, already suffering countries, every 10 years or so back due to the 1930 s.
Some say such fears are exaggerated, and that the Argentine government ignored the doomsday predictions in some measures in the past ten years, this is the best economy since the second world war.
However, for many, the feeling is a gathering storm.
"The end of the story has been written to it at the end of the crisis, said:" from 2002 to 2005, the economy minister, roberto vania, who created the Argentina currently export-oriented policy framework, and on Wall Street is still widely respected.
Although everyone agrees that any crisis will collapse like the 2001-02 - which saw the nationwide riots, two of the President's resignation, the economy shrank by one 5 is bad - it could still is not enough, seriously disrupting lives and business plan.
Fernandez rely on short-term fixes, such as Argentina people buying dollars, price controls and restrictions can only delay the inevitable, and pile driving even more questions.
Pull out vania the couple that he saw before growing the business agenda, ms fernandez's late husband, former President Nestor kirchner, who once said: "the longer they delay things as far as possible, and, more importantly, they will".
"You can't have any investment growth.
The story of chief minister ms fernandez's government declined to be interviewed.
In the past year, Argentina's sharp economic slowdown and is becoming more and more attention, such as Washington and Brasilia, Reuters recently interviewed about 20 industry leader, financial, academic and political attempt to measure national leadership.
Some declined to comment, citing fernandez's government's continuous efforts, intimidation of criticism. Told other - including vania, he has become a rebel leader - political's point of view or agenda.
Even those who have no self, however, in some sense is that Argentina have failed to scare away the private capital, one of the main reasons, why it has fallen steadily from its perch is one of the richest countries in the world in the 1930 s of the old habits.
"It sure sounds like my trouble, rock, professor of the university of California, Santa Barbara, and Argentina's economic history, the author of several books, said:" David.
"What are they doing now, it can't be sustained," said rock. "It is hard to believe it's happening again."
rogue
In fact, Argentina has been the financial rogue things for many years. A $10 billion debt default in the last crisis, has been cut off from capital markets, and argued that the risky place to do business.
Fernandez to confiscate private pension funds to help pay for government debt in 2008, some companies nationalisation. Her government has been accused of tampering with economic data, inflation is running at about 25%, foreign firms are prohibited from sending profits from abroad.
Until recently, though, sustained economic growth, often at an annual pace of 8% or more.
So what has changed?
First of all, from the effects of high inflation has paid the price for many years, Argentine industry lost competitiveness, its main soybean and other commodity prices to fall.
Second, the country has not yet been apart its main trading partners - Brazil and China - are beginning to turn and walk away.
Vale decided in March to cancel the $600 million investment in a new potash deposit is a symbol.
The company, which is privately held, but the serious influence by the Brazilian government, take a walk, because Argentina's growing gap between official and market exchange rate would have forced it to bear the cost of $, as much as 50%, profits is higher than it.
After that, the interior minister of commerce guillermo moreno - fernandez's point is controversial economic issues - requirements and Brazilian officials at a meeting. Then he threatened vale executive detained in Argentina, unless the company reverse its decision, according to three Brazilian officials with knowledge of the dialogue.
Moreno or his office again and again to respond to requests for comment. Economy minister el south Lorenzino also did not respond to interview requests.
Hostile treatment, along with other recent conflict, angered by Brazilian President dilma rousseff and her government "downgrade" relations with Argentina, two senior officials said. Shortly thereafter, the state-run oil company Petrobras stepping up efforts to sell its assets in Argentina.



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