Who runs Iran's clerics, there is no such thing as a surprise, especially on Election Day. Khamenei is not happy, a librarian named Khatami was swept into the president's office in 1997, led a wave of reformers who challenged the status quo, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Revolution unelected, is the most serious investment. Some self-proclaimed at every election cycle, the Iranian government has put every effort winnow choice voters in Iran. On Tuesday, the system re-tighten the screen, only two prominent qualified candidates, who did not dare to and different from the Supreme Leader. When Iranians go to the polls to select a successor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on June 14, ballots will run Khamenei's former policy director, who married his daughter.
"In retrospect, we can see that the system is definitely afraid of the possibility of a Gorbachev phenomenon," Ray Takeyh says Iran's Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington below. He was referring to Mikhail Gorbachev, who selected him to protect his Politburo of the Soviet empire's demise. "Because Khatami, who do not want to repeat the performance."
Consider the two most prominent candidates by the unelected Guardian Council banned, "the last two guys are not completely dragged along, said:" Takeyh Rafsanjani, 78, Iran's president twice, and in 1989 1993. He was an architect bring big power 34 years ago, the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. At one point, when Khomeini thought he was killed, he wrote a testament ordered to pay his debts -, owe Rafsananji most.
Khamenei owed him a good deal more. After the death of Khomeini in 1989, deadlocked until the General Assembly is responsible for naming a successor cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani announced that he had heard Khomeini said Khamenei would be a good job. But even this bit of history is enough to undo the Rafsanjani's reform movement, and later rose to the brutal rule of mullahs and reaction. Meir Javedanfar, Iranian-born analyst in Tel Aviv, said: "This is a bit like Kramer against Kramer is now in the Iranian regime." "Regime enemy."
Less surprising is that ESFANDIAR Mi ? ? 马沙内贾德 named Rahim Khamenei ordered as his vice president until his work in 2009, the man is disqualified. Mashaei to be known as part of a "deviant current" of the proposal, perhaps it is not necessary clergy to mediate between ordinary people and God. He also said, encouraging the Iranian nationalism, Islam more than one thousand years before the arrival of a nation a strong residual force. "Everyone knows Leader can not stand him, and said:" Takeyh.
He and Ahmadinejad stressed that the electoral danger. Ahmadinejad's Holocaust denial watching Western disgust, like Iran to establish the savior to the national stage, he suddenly presidential election in 2005. In Iran's political elite, his populist appeal is real, profound and Khamenei embraced him "almost never had his son, saying:" Javedanfar. Leadership to mobilize established to ensure that young theorist, was re-elected in 2009, so that the appearance of such a large-scale electoral fraud brought hundreds of thousands of Iranians into the streets, left scores dead. But in the second term, Ahmadinejad has repeatedly challenged the authority of Khamenei - more direct Bihatami ever dared. The gentle reformist, opposes confrontation, in an election showdown moment, he was admitted to the hospital, complaining of back spasms.
"They're trying to do in this election is completely different from 2009, said:" Takeyh. Security has been beefed up internet slowing. "They want to do is pass this election cycle, the greatest degree of public apathy." Field of candidates should help. Leaders reported favorite is Jalili, Iran's nuclear program before heading for the negotiating team ran Khamenei's office. Also approved the operation is former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, another former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani, former Speaker Gholam-law and Khamenei Ali Haddad - Adel.
It is not a diverse field. Screened candidates have become more stringent, the base has been reduced to the Iranian political analysts describe as dangerous a book. Now the news, which a decade ago was still lively, reflecting the political spectrum from A to B: The "Principlists" square off "traditional conservatives." Everyone else on the outside prying eyes. "The smaller the circle, and worse legitimacy,", Javedanfar said Iran interdisciplinary center in the north of Tel Aviv lectures. "And the fact that anyone in the box sharpest tool."
On the other hand, it might not be a great time to Mullah court unnecessary risks. Iran's economy is crippled, aimed at reducing international sanctions against its nuclear program, Tehran's only military ally - Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad - fighting for his life, along with neighboring Iran sponsors Hezbollah militia.
"In fact, they may be successful stage managed this thing they dished out two candidates who might cause trouble, said:" Takeyh. "But you never know who knows forecast in 2009, there was like Mir Hossein Mousavi has inspired massive street protests? 2009, they invited 400 foreign reporters into the country to watch. They expect things to go wrong? "
 
 



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