Rising U.S. shale oil production will help meet most of the world's oil demand in the next five years, even in the global economic recovery steam, leaving small room for OPEC to lift output, rather than risking a lower price, said Western Energy Agency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts in its semi-annual report of concern, the mid-term global oil supply and demand trend analysis.
"Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that North America has set off a supply shock, sending ripples around the world.
"The good news is that this is help to alleviate the market a few years more nervous," she added. Oil turnover of close to $ 103 a barrel on Tuesday, well below the 2008 peak of $ 147.
IEA said global demand is expected to rise 8%, polymerization based on a rather optimistic assumption that a global economic growth of 3 to 4.5 percent per year between 2012 and 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 9670 never barrel (BPD) period.
Mainly by the production of non-OPEC countries, which will be 59.31 million barrels in 2012 and 2018 increased by more than 10% of the incremental demand will be met, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in 2017, it is estimated that the increase in non-OPEC supply 100 million barrels with previous reports in October 2012.
The United States will overtake Russia to become the world's largest non-OPEC producers as early as in 2015, the International Energy Agency said.
OPEC may leave, had long as a last resort, to meet the growing demand for world output fluctuations around the current level of 300,000 barrels per day in the next five years.
The agency lowered its estimated demand for OPEC crude oil from 2017 to 29.99 million barrels, down 12.2 million barrels from six months ago, its previous report.
It said that OPEC's spare capacity will increase over the first quarter to reach 6.4 million barrels, or 6.6% of global demand, provide additional margin to potential supply shocks, the report said.
The adoption of U.S. shale technology can help the unconventional reserves in Russia and China, to increase production, but in other areas of new projects may slow.
"Several members of the producer group (OPEC) face new obstacles, particularly in North America and sub-Saharan Africa region from the aftermath of the" Arab Spring "taking a toll on investment and growth," the IEA said.
Across groups (OPEC) cut part offset by growth in Saudi Arabia's ability to significantly stronger than previously expected, reflecting the newly announced development projects, it added.
Iran's sustainable crude oil production capacity could be as high as 1 million barrels to 2.38 million barrels in 2018, the lowest level in decades, due to Western sanctions, the International Energy Agency said.
Chart the global oil balance: http://link.reuters.com/cyv97t
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European refiners AT risk
The IEA said that the balance of global supply growth, until recently, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries equally inclined to the latter.
It added that: "As a result, the non-OPEC group in North America and more globally, to increase its supply growth share.
In every other aspect of the supply chain is amazing demand, oil refining, trade or storage and transportation, the rapid rise of emerging markets and developing economies, it said.
These economies is expected to surpass the developed economies from the second quarter of 2013, the consumption of refined oil. This has led to expanded to more than 54% from 49% of the global demand in 2012 to 2018.
International Energy Agency said that in Brazil, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa's growth beyond the well-known story of many African countries, the rise of global oil consumption map.
The International Energy Agency also predicted that changes in the global refining industry, the establishment of new countries, such as India and Saudi Arabia's refining capacity.
Global refining capacity expansion will exceed the pressure upstream supply growth and demand growth, refining margins. The high cost of the refinery will face more intense competition.
The IEA said: "European refinery closures risk is particularly high during the forecast period,".
Another consequence of the surge in production in the United States, is the transformation of the natural gas pricing, which will challenge the conventional wisdom, transportation fuels from oil production will continue to dominate the market, the IEA added.
"Cheap and abundant natural gas fuel to the wider use has facilitated the transition of the U.S. economy," the agency said. Gas road transport fuel to increase its share from 1.4% in 2010, 2.5% in 2018, it predicted.
 
 



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