The country's reserves the top AAA rating moody's investors service and fitch ratings international credit rating, rising debt levels. A gap in 2011 standard &poor's demotion, the confusion of the debt limit rivalry. On Monday, fitch ratings, said the recent debt limit expansion immediately eliminates the risk rating.
But, looking to the future, emerging signs of congress to work together, it is unlikely that it was not enough to prevent more U.S. national debt, this is as a benchmark borrowing costs, and think that the most safe haven degradation.
What is the trigger degradation and don't have the exact formula, but agencies issued statements and report to provide some clues. In particular, the proportion of debt to GDP, at present in 68%, than AAA rating of the countries, such as Canada, but than Australia and Norway.
"In the middle of the deficit and debt trajectory of negotiations is the most important thing in our rating, lead the United States, moody's investors service sovereign credit analysts Stephen Hess said."
"We are looking for a persuasive falling trajectory debt ratio, we don't think it's still there."
The United States government from crisis to another crisis in recent years has jumped, starting with 2011 years of debt ceiling struggle, and then the main tax increases and spending cuts by the end of last year, in the "fiscal cliff" threat. There are also people who believe that the republicans would refuse to improve the debt ceiling, forcing deep cuts in spending, until recently is just a process.
However, even if both sides in Washington's behavior, it is still not enough, until the debt level.
Moody's said, and the specific measures to cut debt percentage of GDP with the passage of time may get the AAA rating of the affirmation and delete the risk of degradation. Low transaction do not, or do speed too slow, endangers credit rating.
The agency said that the end of this year, it may solve the country's negative prospects, budget problem is solved or not.
Another potential risk, rather than in a stalemate, both sides in Washington delays in roughly the same way, they have put them in the past difficult decision, Nicholas swahn said, standard &poor's sovereign rating director.
Short delay is one thing, the swans' said, "but when you start to talk about in, after years of delay, and finally put forward a problem, it will never come true?"
Numbers game
Recent deal, lengthen 3 months of the debt limit, and the senate puts forward a budget, and did not solve the rating - rising debt and political obstacles one of the main risks.
All three major rating agencies in the United States have a negative rating outlook. Hess said, moody's no "special number", when it involves a debt percentage of GDP.
Moody's published in September in a report said, AAA rating will be more likely to be safe, if the federal debt percentage of GDP in 2014 to reach the top, and then is expected to drop below 0%, and by the 2020 s budget of the results of the settlement agreement. However, if the ratio is expected to be increased to about 90%, in the time frame, "score degradation will become more possible.
In some cases, in 2011, the United States public debt accounted for 67.8% of gross domestic product rose to, according to the United States central intelligence agency "the world situation", the key measures of path is uncertain. Australia is currently in 26.7%, but Canada is 87.4%.
Even so, the American economy is at least steady growth, if not light. The international monetary fund (IMF) estimation, this year's 2% and 3%, GDP growth in the future. Economic growth usually helps to reduce debt percentage of GDP, because tax income increases and produce more goods. If growth disappointing, low expansion speed in the next few years "more and more debt" more difficult.
In contrast, AAA rating of British flirt five years, Germany, the euro area's main, its third economic recession, only in 2013, 1.4% in 2014, is expected to increase 0.6%.
Although moody is unknowable combination, increase revenue and cut costs, at least a circular retrench will march out with automatic cut costs.




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