On the surface, 2013 should be a more traumatic for a year, more than 2012 years of 17 countries of the single currency.
Great financial situation has improved, the European central bank pledged to keep the euro at all costs. Deep in debt peripheral countries bond yields sharply decline, the bank financing pressure to ease up, the stock market.
The southern edge of the eurozone countries have made great progress in reducing their budget and trade deficits. They are no longer way of life, make ends meet. They also introduced a politically sensitive structure reform, especially to make their Labour markets more agile.
However, demand is likely to remain weak and unemployment, has reached a record 11.8%, is expected to rise further before it comes down. Recovery will be slow.
"They have to take the medicine, but they won't jump down from the bed, and said:" Sebastian Barnes in Paris, the organization for economic cooperation and development.
"The question is set up a bridge, two or three years in the future, when you put the right policies, but they don't bearing fruit. Management public expectations, so this is a problem," Barnes, rich consultant national BBS's chief economist.
Risks remain
Belem berger's bank said, all forward-looking indicators, this year spring restorative growth, should further reduce the euro area's fiscal deficit amount less than 2.5% of GDP in 2013. It stands in the last year about 3.4%, down from 4.1% in 2011.
More important is, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece in the merger of the current account deficit in 2012, estimates that 1.5% of gross domestic product, from 7% in 2008, and looking forward to this year, to balance the external account.
However, the bank's chief economist holger shi meters ding said, a single currency is not out.
"Despite the impressive progress, serious risks remain., the euro area need to growth, the main market in foreign political patience, stay at home, of course," he said in a report.
A lingering concern is that the economy of the euro area's mistake is to pass what Barnes of so-called "bad to balance".
Therefore, although the export growth played an important role, has set up a file in the periphery of the improvement of the current account mainly by cutting down on imports.
Relative wage costs reduce brings "internal devaluation" - only the depreciation of the circumstances, the exchange rate flexibility - so far is designed out of proportion, through the wage growth slowed, rising unemployment, not.
Ireland is a notable exception - this is the euro area outside of the UK - Barnes said, there are encouraging signs in other places, such as in Spain.
However, the Italian, almost did not touch the wage negotiation system. "But the problem is, wages impact in the front of the productive forces," he said.
LET 'S GET structure
Gilles MOEC, deutsche bank in London's economists, also worried about Italy. Italy has its government deficit control, but MOEC see a growing employment suspension, "he said what sign is very slow, financial crisis, since the outbreak of the private sector to flat the scale.
Reflecting on the rise, in Italy's employees' compensation a percentage of enterprise value increased from 52.5% in 2007 to 57.7%.
On the contrary, in Spain, 25% unemployment rate is more than twice as tall as Italy, salary share over the same period fell by 64.7% to 55.9%.
To balance, in short, is far from complete. This is the real creditor nation. Germany's current-account surplus is to stay in a high 6% of GDP, reflecting the weak investment and consumption.
Goldman Sachs (outlined in yesterday) tried to measure the progress made in ironing update its estimate need real exchange rate change of the national debt in net imbalance - total annual current account deficits and surpluses results - back to the broad balance.
In Greece, Portugal and Spain's current-account improvement, now need a inflation factor adjusted depreciation is 8 to 10%, lower than the first two years, Goldman sachs estimates.
And the rest of the adjustment is still huge - about 25% to 30% of the cases, the Spanish about 15% - 25%, not only in Greece and Portugal, but in France, the employers and the union agreed to bag Labour market reforms to restore competitiveness.
By the way, Germany, need a real appreciation of 15% - 25%.
, Goldman sachs said, high unemployment and low wages, but structural reform provides a less painful to rebalance path.
Switch resources domestic department, such as buildings, in Spain and France public service export will reduce need more real exchange rate depreciation.
Goldman sachs economists "wrote:" but, use this reform is not painless: stand in their current privilege of vested interest groups political capital potential loss, prevent politicians, implement the necessary reforms. This is still the right, in the majority of peripheral, in France and Germany, LASSE Holboell nelson.
Barnes and organization for economic cooperation and development said, all countries can do much, but in large economies, including France and Germany, the lack of reform is a particularly notable.
Organization for economic cooperation and development studies show that received wisdom instead, structural reform made positive results, in a year or two years, especially by promoting investment and employment. This, in turn influence public opinion.



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