With the continuation of the global financial and economic crisis, the European regulators and policy makers are still trying to find a way out of crisis towards stability, while at the same time balance the public interest of an independent sovereign state a way out, Germany had always been considered to support this process "golden master", the German government bonds has also been regarded as the European assets of the "safe haven".
 
Independent financial services research institutions, Graham Fisher, general manager Josh Rosner (Josh Rosner) has warned investors that the German government bonds is not what people think so safe.
 
Rosner "First Financial Daily reporter in an exclusive interview in August 16, regardless of whether Germany decided to prop up an uncompetitive euro area, or wait for the chaos of the euro-zone crash, the German economy, the price is enormous , which is the cause of the key reasons for the German bond investment risk. Rosner warned that if Germany and then continue to "go see step by step", the German government bonds is likely to be in the next six to 18 months collapse.
German debt is no longer the euro area "safe haven"
 
When the sovereign debt of the southern European countries, investors are increasingly distanced themselves from him, German government bonds has always been regarded as a "safe haven" of euro assets. The market is still fresh: the beginning of the year German government bonds to the negative interest rate auction of treasury bills was a hotbed of activity.
 
Germany to protect its banking sector to avoid the lack of capital and further bankruptcy will pay for a people whose bank recapitalization in the back. The result is that the German debt rose sharply, while German economic growth will significantly slow down These are the facts. "Rosner said.
 
He believes that the longer the waiting time of political leaders, decision-making is not decisive, German government bonds and banks lose their European assets "safe haven" this capacity, the greater the risk.
Rosner on July 17 issued a White Paper on German government bonds.
 
Shortly thereafter, the rating agencies Moody's to respond to down Germany's AAA credit rating from stable to negative. The current debt crisis in Europe is not short-term capital markets of individual EU member states and the economic downturn, but closely related to the structure defects of the euro area long-term. The potential risks and the European debt crisis of the German economy has a profound connection.
A series of economic indicators show that Germany's economic fundamentals are not as good as people think. Only from the banking point of view, the the Rosner analysis, the overall profitability of the German banking sector is not higher than in other European countries. Deutsche Bank, for example, its size by 40% compared to 2006, now accounts for 80% of the German economy as a whole, this bank's leverage ratio is nearly 40 times, almost the collapse of Lehman Brothers when the leverage ratio is also higher 50%.
 
"If you look at the relative exposure of the German banking sector, loss provisions and a leverage ratio, then the German taxpayers have every reason to worry." Rosner said.
 
Rosner opinion, these will undoubtedly push the high yield of German government bonds, because the decoupling with the economic fundamentals of the German government bonds high rating is not sustainable. Rosner said that European leaders continue to see step by step, is expected in the next 6-18 months this situation will become increasingly clear to German government bonds is likely to collapse.



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