Supply pressure is diminished
Beginning in late July, the market is flooded with a variety of industries to cut the message, but the Bureau of Statistics data show that rebar per day in July at 484,600 tons, a decline of 4.19 percent, just below 505,800 tons in June this year, and 487,200 tons in April, we can see, the output is still high, the steel industry in July almost did not take any cut measures, the industry as a whole is still to maintain the level of high operating rate.
August, some companies beginning to the equipment overhaul in order to achieve the purpose of reducing production. According to the survey of 55 manufacturing enterprise 135 rebar production line, the business plan in August of the yield was 88.6%, the chain is only reduced by 2.1 percent, the will of the companies cut is still low. The formation of the main reasons of this situation, one company do not want to cut, and new equipment are being put into production. Overhaul blast furnace volume of 46,000 cubic meters in August, according to incomplete statistics, in North China's new production of blast furnace volume of 10,000 cubic meters, it is estimated that the new production of blast furnace volume of more than 20,000 m3. Maintenance volume is greater than the new production volume, a steady stream of new devices launched, also contributed to the slow speed of industry production.
Downstream demand is low does not change
July steel PMI data was released as a leading indicator for new orders and export orders index has been hit hard in July, July, new orders index was 33.3, the lowest level since December 2008, the export orders index was 32.4, is nearly 4 years minimum value. Typically, orders in July in August and September delivery, the July index hit a new low after the financial crisis, steel downstream demand means that the back two months in the doldrums.
Real estate as the most direct rebar downstream demand industry, the real estate industry data released last week continued to deteriorate, the new construction area for four consecutive months of negative growth year on year, and the decline is increasing. The Department of Homeland latest announcement shows that the 2012 annual housing than originally planned reduction of 13,300 hectares, a decline of 7.7%. Mainly from April to declining new construction area, residential land is reduced resulting in the downstream start more. We assume that the reduced land all commercial land (because the announcement shows that the land for the protection of housing demand than the beginning of the year 72.5%) per square meter unit consumption of 80 kg of steel, including rebar accounted for 80 percent, shrank 13,300 hectares of residential land to reduce the thread the amount of 8.5 million tons of steel, the downturn in the real estate industry suffered another blow.
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