Bureau of Statistics, July 2012, China exported 4.32 million tons of steel, 900,000 tons less than in June, down 2.99 percent compared to last year, steel exports for this year is likely to drop sharply for the first time. This paper tries to analyze from the point of view of the seasonal adjustment seasonal factors affecting the exports of steel and other irregular factors. July this year, exports of steel chain have fallen sharply because in addition to seasonal factors, the other irregular factors including domestic and foreign spreads widened, the prevalence of trade protectionism and exporters of steel capacity expansion. Is affected by the short term, China's steel exports is difficult to restore rapid growth, in particular, trade friction and exporters of capacity rapid growth of the constraints of China's steel exports have been gradually revealed. According to our forecasts, China's steel exports in the second half to maintain low running, but is expected to bottoming out at the end.
A seasonal factors pulled down in July steel exports, remained low in the next few months
Steel export data since 2004, seasonally adjusted, from the seasonal factor curves (Y_SF), due to seasonal factors, the annual seasonal factors in the first half performance for the rise in the second half is generally in a downward phase, although there are short-term rebound , but ultimately can not change the decline. Therefore, the seasonal factors will make each year in the second half exports of steel is extremely bleak, and the beginning of the year is the resumption of high growth. From the seasonally adjusted curve (Y_SA), excluding seasonal factors, exports of steel fell to lows in 2009 and began to rise, since 2010 the compound annual growth rate in more than 10%.
Other News:
Steel City ＂rainy weather＂ the same lack of ＂bright spots＂ to stimulate
Steel prices stumble endlessly increasing need within the foreseeable future
BHP Billiton refers to the weak coal market or considering layoffs
Steel exports fell Cause Analysis and Forecast
Steel price trend next week warning: supply and demand is not busy the weak shoc
Greece intends to formally apply for an extension of the tight deadline of two y
Senior foreign affairs officials frequency representations detained fastest Diao
High inventory requirements sudden drop in short-term recovery in the steel indu
