According to the inventory monitoring system, until August 11, five varieties of the domestic (wire, thread, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils, plate) of the social stock OF steel, compared with last week decreased by about 16 million tons, the inventory is achieve three down about 15.15 million tons, 1.35 million tons higher than the level a year earlier, further narrowing the gap. Description of China's steel market in the near future to continue to change for the better; I believe that steel prices continue to the overall short-term correction based, or the stimulation of the parties to the message, repeated shocks of short-term price increase.
I integrated provincial and municipal spot market for end-demand remains weak, procurement execution demand a small amount; that is, the reason why steel stocks down three times in a row, mainly because of the increase as well as some of the steel maintenance plan since late July due to the blast furnace shutdown; but the current action of the steel mills of view, the follow-up of the late steel production efforts have been weaker, to the inventory of short-term rate will be further slowed down.
The analyst pointed out that the economic environment continuing weakness in the case of China's steel market and the significant rise in prices the probability is very low; more than short-term shocks to the main line; so, we consider the latter part of the steel price trend, it should be more the prompt to seize short-term market conditions, to avoid a large number of bargain-hunting stockpile gambling market operations, reduce risk and looking for short-term stage opportunities for the most.
From the current situation, the reason why we made the difficult to judge the trend of rising prices, the main consideration is based on the relationship between supply and demand. While the national steel market continue to maintain to the inventory, but the basic end-demand release has nothing to do; at this stage although the steel has a certain amount of production, but in July the average daily production of 1.99 million tons, still high, much higher than the market's consumption capacity, the steel market oversupply situation will continue.
Construction steel inventory of Specifically, pileare on larger decline, the main consideration is with the arrival of autumn, after a series of major infrastructure projects will continue into the construction phase, part of the project began Admission purchase, but because from the demand as a whole release there is a gap, so the resources of low-cost transactions has improved, and high turnover continued difficulties.
Despite the start of the investment project is still subject to financing obstacles, but overall there is a certain demand. Addition, the Ministry of Housing and Urban had announced 1 July to protect the housing project data shows that new construction of 5.8 million units, 3.6 million sets of new construction, completed an investment of 660 billion yuan; years to protect housing construction is less pressure from the data, the latter long products driven demand may be further reduced.
Plate class inventory, the inventory of hot rolled coil last week, a slight rise, and the news that the steel plate since August productivity rebounded in the case of demand incompetent, steel mills increased plate production capacity, indicating that the latter part of the plate class stocks have continued to increase.
Overall, from the steel stocks even drop is difficult to see the release of the shadow of the demand, this market is most worried about, another recent raw material prices have further signs of weakness, a negative impact on market expectations of rising steel prices; Baosteel next on the ex-factory price, Sha Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and other major steel mills remain in a substantial decline also shows that bearish expectations; As a result, we believe that the game which the variety of positive and negative factors intertwined steel prices difficult with the traditional "golden nine silver and 10" high season appears reversal; should be periodic short-term market-based.
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