In March 2012, Greece had the largest ever sovereign debt restructuring, the total size of up to $ 273 billion, more than before, the largest of the two debt restructuring - Argentina $ 144 billion and Russia 390 million U.S. dollars. International rating agencies Moody's calculates the size of the Greek debt replacement in March accounted for 59% of the total national debt, 98 percent of its GDP. The world average of these two figures were 34% and 31%.
 
Moody's said in a recently released report by the analysis of historical circumstances, taking into account the grim situation facing the euro area sovereign state, they believe the debt replacement for the country once again there is a higher risk of default.
 
The report shows that the displacement of Greek sovereign debt has caused very large losses to investors. The average transaction price to the point of view, the investors have suffered losses in debt replacement ratio of 47%, but the Greek investors suffered losses of up to 76%, which has more than the losses caused in the 2005 Argentine sovereign debt replacement.
 
It is worth noting that the re-sovereign debt default there are certain rules. Through the study of the trajectory of default on sovereign debt swap transaction, 30 pen 22 countries since 1997, Moody's found that 37% of a further breach of the situation, which is why debt rating after the replacement is usually maintained at a "Caa ~ C". a lower level. Moody's further noted that 67 percent of the breach began in the early can not be in accordance with the contract principal or interest payments, while 29 percent of the breach, then start the debt replacement of debt restructuring plan or a new guarantee funds or assets to creditors. or require the reduction of debt obligations.
 
Why is the replacement of sovereign debt default risk again high? Moody's said, and corporate bonds, sovereign debt default, investors generally will not choose the way of resolution of the bankruptcy and liquidation, can not get physical assets had to choose the debt replacement.
 
Replacement of debt is generally involved in three ways: First, extension, two interest rate cuts is to improve the position. Moody's research shows that 20 countries have opted for the extension, apparently an extension than to directly improve the position of the more general approach.
 
Moody's found that the greater the scale of debt replacement is not necessarily the greater the risk of facing investors through case studies, the national debt accounted for a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), with investor losses prove that there is a certain correlation.



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