Or introducing new measures in September
U.S. economic growth was only 1.5% in the second quarter of this year, less than 2% in the first quarter and 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and an important engine for personal growth in consumer spending as economic growth is significantly reduced. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate has 41 maintained at 8% above the current level of 8.2% compared to the beginning of the year fell by only 0.1 percentage points.
Some analysts believe that economic sounding the alarm, the decline in manufacturing a number of indicators from the personal consumption, poor corporate earnings expectations, the U.S. economy is still moving on the growth path, although the growth tepid, but weak degree of perhaps not enough to prompt the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing. In addition, a number of areas showing signs of fatigue, the real estate market in terms of sales, house prices and construction activity showed further signs of improvement, this is undoubtedly good news for the economy as a whole.
To reverse the operation extended to the end of the Federal Reserve recently announced a regular meeting in June, most analysts believe the Fed will wait until at least September may introduce new measures, this will have more time judged that the job market and overall economic trends and outlook Chaou the progress of the debt crisis.
High-frequency economic, chief U.S. economist Jim O'Sullivan said, "the statement at least the market for years to further relax the suspicion of the policy." Bernanke may in the end of August in Jackson Hole, monetary policy meeting further elaborated in the Fed's future policy stance.
QE3 effect Yin Zhengyi
Some analysts believe the Fed reasons for the delay launch QE3 because the Federal Reserve within the QE3 the implementation of the effect of differences. The Fed is not yet available QE3, but stressed that the possible will be retained to take the necessary action, the tone than in the past to be strong. The second quarter of the economic downturn and inflation is expected to reduce the Fed may take further action on the policy meeting in September. Expected QE3 is likely to mainly mortgage-backed securities, the scale will 500000000000-700000000000 U.S. dollars.
Worldwide Markets in New Jersey, chief market strategist Joseph Trevi Thani said, that "The Fed did not want to launch QE3 because the policy does not bring any benefit, in other words, QE3 any positive effect almost all psychological level. Fed inaction also send reminders to the Obama administration, the unemployment rate will be more and more serious, 13 million Americans are unemployed, which lasted for more than half a year many people are unemployed. If Obama and the U.S. Congress did not compromise to reduce the deficit and raise taxes, then the unemployment rate is rising rapidly in the next year.
Today, Republicans and Democrats because of election issues respective to find a way. The White House will be targeted in the long-term drag on economic growth in the real estate market, intends to use the funding to buy a house for the "two room" implementation of the debt write-downs, and the revival of the real estate market, you can drive a large number of employment. The Republican Party is targeted tax cuts, August 1, U.S. House of Representatives symbolic vote by extending the tax cuts plan, will expire at the end of all the existing low tax rate extension.
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