Economic growth in the second half of not less than 8.2%
The central bank down three times since last November kept quasi-two interest rate cuts, not only that the level of inflation in China has entered the downstream channel, it is stated that the government's economic emphasis has shifted from curbing inflation to maintain growth.
In addition, the central government economic work in the second half of the year to accelerate the transformation of economic development as the main line, and dependable growth on a more important position. I expected the second half of the monetary policy and fiscal policy will be coordinated with the "steady growth" focus of economic work, although its effect will that have a certain delay.
Recently released China's official manufacturing PMI in July showed that its sub-targets in only PMI is slightly higher than the 50 remaining indicators in the bottom of the ups and downs of line, indicating that China's economy is still depressed state. SMEs July manufacturing PMI rebounded, showing a slight improvement in the domestic economic structure, the economic signs of stabilization. From the practical experience over the years, China's actual economic growth rate is often higher than the government expected the second half of domestic monetary policy, fiscal policy will continue to adjust to the direction of promoting economic growth, expected in the second half of the domestic economic growth will not be low 8.2%.
To stabilize the economy will help industrial rebound
China's economic growth rate down expectations and the fact that domestic commodity markets are significant retracement. Since March, the the Nanhua index representative of the overall running of the domestic futures market trend retracement of the magnitude of up to 17.46%, which the metal species overall retracement of 15.63%, the energy of the species overall retracement of 27.26%. Gradually emerging as the domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy to relax the expected rebound in economic growth in the second half of the year, the domestic commodity markets must stabilize: copper stabilized signs of interest rate cuts since June, the end of July rebar once touch the end of a rebound, the decline in the rest of the industrial products gradually converge.
European debt crisis for the domestic goods market is still great pressure, but this negative factor for the Fed's monetary policy is expected to be good hedge: changes in the comprehensive U.S. core inflation rate, the U.S. economic performance and the November general election a number of factors to consider, expect the Fed to recent will launch a new round of stimulus.
Given the downturn in the external economic environment and weak domestic demand, domestic economic growth in the second half point is likely to remain from the investment for weak industrial products will undoubtedly be a significant boost to the expected full range of industrial products is expected to rebound August, but the rebound will be difficult to go beyond the 4 trillion stimulus in 2009 during the stock market.
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