China Steel Industry Association data show that the focus on large and medium-sized enterprises in early July 2012, crude steel output was 1.6574 million tons, mid-ring growth of 0.44 percent. Expected in early July, the average daily production of crude steel was 1.9581 million tons, the mid-ring fell 0.36 percent. With steel spot price has fallen sharply in the mid and late July, Liu Gang, Cold Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel and other large steel mills were forced shutdowns. From the decline of the production data, the mid-July on the steel is the more common maintenance cut. Steel production kicked off, will help ease the panic in the market and contributed to the substantial improvement of the supply and demand side.
Inventory, as of July 27, the domestic steel major cities of the social stock of 15,379,600 tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons, compared to July 20, the stock fell 0.6 percent. The the domestic rebar the social stock of for the 6.6207 million tons, as compared to July 20th a decrease of 87.1 thousand tons, inventory to reduce of 1.2 percent, rebar go to the inventory speed, began to accelerate. Sub-regional point of view, the growth rate drops fastest-growing region for the the the Northeast and the East China region, rebar social inventory ring than the the, respectively a decrease of 59.6 thousand tons and 41.2 thousand t. August rebar demand for traditional off-season and late stocks rose slightly more likely.
The demand side, changes in the terminal purchases. As of July 27, the week end purchases of 15,000 tons, a decline of 4940 tons. The the current high temperature rainy weather is not suitable for the site construction, coupled with the steel prices confusion (A) fell by makes the the the the market mentality of instability, the downstream customers one after another to postpone the procurement, the growth in demand for you price cuts to brought about by begin to slow down, and terminal procurement the amount of appear a Suliang. At present, the the of weak the downstream demand pairs of the the price of support still is very limited.
The continuous fall in spot prices, steel mills began to cut the insured, in addition to the involvement of traders bargain-hunting behavior, rebar spot prices for two days obviously rebounded. July 31, the the rebar national average price of 3690 yuan / ton, compared to July 30 rose 33 yuan / ton. Qingdao port iron ore spot price calculation, according to Jin Xincheng this profit model, according to the national average price, net of tax estimates, July 31 rebar Maori -58 yuan / ton, the estimated gross profit rebounded. From the historical data to estimate the the the Maori continuous downward trend began to be improved, and rebar to continue down the limited space.
If we say that weak oscillation of the rebar futures prices in June, throughout July in steel prices squally showers crash, the crash most began to stumble endlessly from the spot price. The rebar the National spot the average price of from the the the 4247 yuan in in April to / ton all the way decline in, from the the futures premium to fell to a futures liters of water, the July 10 spot the average price of fell below the 4000 yuan / tons of integer juncture, and the same day the the futures prices have fallen 1.82%, synchronization is also below 4000 yuan / ton integer points, this one downward trend has been confirmed. Steel prices fell this deep panic in the market mentality has subsided, spot prices began to stabilize. The Preliminary panic Paohuo makes small and medium-sized traders on hand inventory less steel prices stabilized fill inventory needs, short-term market stabilized rebound possible. But taking into account the needs and the capital side there is no real good appear, and steel production there are also the lag effect, the demand is still weak, the limited space of the rebar rebound, is expected to the oscillation rebound likely.
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