Recently, in the hype of weather, soybean meal and corn and other agricultural products out of a rebound and hit a new high; but rebar tired filling, take the lead in the recent lows varieties, showing independent decline of the stock market. Experts from the capital and industry fundamentals analysis, does not rule out a large steel short, the possibility of the industry reshuffle. Hedging is not a big steel mills plate, this wave of money is essentially also may inadvertently promote the survival of the fittest of the industry.
Rebar showing "strange" market
Yesterday, the commodity market is still maintained shock finishing rebar futures edged up 0.11 percent to 3703 yuan / ton, is still in the process of the shock bottoms. The turnover approaching 1.5 million hand-largest trading volume for the near future.
Market position analysis of the rebar market in the recent "strange". Experts point out that the rebar down, the main market short of funds into the market below 4,000 points, with steel rallies hedging operating principles are not the same, can not determine is the new speculation additional funds or large steel store of value positions.
In short funds have continued the process of admission, the proportion of market clearance single rising, July 19 reached a peak of 79 000 I hand, short funded entirely prevail.
In the process of decline, the spot steel prices with the market, making the thread futures prices fall below the low of the market in October last year to adjust, but disappointed the market has not seen the centralized production overhaul signal.
Iron and steel industry to accelerate the survival of the fittest
Should be noted that the steel industry, the status of a "vicious circle".
"In the current market, private small steel mills cut, companies worried about was halted, the bank is pressing the loan, may soon be down, only to bite the bullet and production." Dongxing futures analyst, said County Ling.
The projected cost of doing business in accordance with the prices of iron ore and coke, below 3700 yuan steel prices have been lower than the cost of the steel mills. Steel prices, iron ore and steel billet pre defensive Budie, which formed the turn of the vicious cycle of decline in finished goods and raw materials.
Steel also the continuous decline of the futures spot prices continue to drop. East China is the leading steel sand steel HRB400 prices 250-3920 yuan / ton, down from the end of June of 4170 yuan / ton high. Decline in steel prices and stimulate demand for the same period in domestic stocks are still up to 6.7 million tons. Crude steel production over the same period is maintained at a level close to 1.95 million tons, there was no signs of large-scale production.
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