First, the economic situation remains grim
Since the beginning of this year, economic growth has been declining, the preliminary estimates, GDP in the first half of 22.7098 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 7.8%.
Breaking "eight", Premier Wen Jiabao stressed in doing research of appropriate policies to increase the pre-tune fine-tune the intensity of the speech, In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in the July 16 "World Economic Outlook update report in the next two years, global economic growth were decreased by 3.5% and 3.9%, which developed economies this year, the growth rate of 1.4%, emerging and developing economies to 5.6%. It is worth noting that China this year and next year's GDP growth down to 8.0% and 8.5%.
When yesterday's "Black Monday", Moody's lowered the rating outlook of a number of European countries, U.S. 10-year bond yields hit a new low steel prices reached a record single-day decline since the 9.
Second, the downstream demand continues sluggish
Down of economic growth, first of all began to say the infrastructure investment, this is also the maximum flow of steel products, the data show that from January to June this year, the National Highway completed an investment of 473.3 billion yuan, down 7.8 percent over the previous five The decline narrowed by nearly two percentage points in a single month of June, completed an investment of 134.5 billion yuan, up flat. Adverse economic pick-up in housing prices has once again aroused national concern for the current real estate market situation, the Ministry of Land Resources and Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry jointly issued an urgent notice on further rigorous real estate and land management to consolidate the achievements of the real estate market regulation, which is interpreted as the prices between local and central game.
Prior to the continuation of the automotive industry downturn, the slowdown in domestic sales and exports, household appliances production and sales fell significantly, the machinery industry was sluggish in the first half, and can only hope the second half of the recovery perspective of steel supply and demand imbalance.
Thrid, internal panic in the steel city gradually from the
Recent market continued to sell into businesses unprecedented panic, Paohuo situation has become the norm, one, two, three-wire game between the steel also intense, billet price reproduce the steep drop, outside the mine price Yindie steadily in demand has already without support, the cost of support is also weakening, which makes the steel mills to compete with each other in the introduction of the policy, the decline in wave after wave.
Moreover, the recent and have not heard too many steel mills maintenance, production cuts, even if there is a small part of the plate and other products, still under full load for the building materials to go relatively large production. Shanghai hot rolled below 3700 yuan / ton point, the market price of the bottom aimed at 3200 yuan / ton, we can see that the traders' confidence in the current market has been total loss.
Foruth, a look at the trends do not look at the end of
Last week, the entire market prices decline somewhat unexpected expansion Now everyone is concerned about the bottom of the in where in the end, I can not determine a specific price, but the iconic signs still exist, the steel mills when to take the initiative to expand the range of cut outside the mine when the real stabilized stabilized, perhaps this week or next week we can not see from the current situation, we still need the strong support of the national policies.
Like the land of the long drought, thanks to seek the nectar blessing, after the implementation of a policy, the desire to bring the nectar-like results. These policy-oriented infrastructure projects "Resurrection", the real turning point will be to the Steel City. As the saying goes: crash only outsole. Perhaps in this round of sell is gradually bottoming, time will not be long in August, is this bottoming period.
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