Global economy are still risks
 
U.S. economic data were mixed. The latest slight downturn in private consumption data, however, the NAHB real estate index in July was better than market expectations. Overall, U.S. economic data is still better, just improved at a slower pace. At the same time, initial jobless claims has been declining, but because of the number of continued claims for unemployment continue to remain high, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery is limited to improve employment. Taking into account the acute problem of unemployment, on the 17th Bernanke said the Fed to do the preparation necessary to take further measures.
 
Signs of Europe, along with international organizations and the strengthening of cooperation in debtor countries, the debt crisis in Europe has slowly been brought under control, the recent ten-year bond yields in all the crisis countries have downward adjustment. However, Germany's poor economic situation, the card along is the debt crisis, no country can be spared. The market is still worried about the U.S. economic recovery and the subsequent development of the European debt crisis.
 
Steel demand in the second half of the overall change for the better
Recently, the Asian Bank, the IMF and Fitch institutions, including early warning of the downside risks of the Chinese economy, the domestic "structural adjustment" and "steady growth" contradictions are re-intensify. China's GDP grew 7.6 percent in the second quarter of record three-year low, the market is generally expected the economy has bottomed. In June, investment, consumption, exports, credit and financial data, the economy has also been signs of stabilization. Investment and credit data has fully demonstrated that the latter part of the domestic large-scale construction of the project will be growth, along with the "Rail-based project carried out, steel demand in the second half of the year will be improved.
 
Steel prices late shutdowns or expand
 
In June, the average daily crude steel production is still up to 2.007 million tons, again following the April of this year climbed to a peak of 2 million tons. High crude steel output was mainly the early large-scale steel mills are still meager profit due. However, at present, the situation has changed, the downturn in steel prices, steel mills of East China from mid-May, continuing losses, the north and southwest China recently also incur losses only in southern China part of the steel mills to maintain a precarious low-profit. Spot price, there are still a downward trend, steel prices put pressure on steel profits continued losses, the late steel mill maintenance shutdown will be expanded.
Through the laws of history, once the steel prices effective below the steel dynamics steel-making costs more than 3 weeks are generally able to stimulate large-scale production cuts, so there should be a time window of steel cut, if the rebar spot The prices run low, then continue for a long time, large-scale production cuts will lead to the rebar at the bottom of gradually rendering.
 
Protection of housing construction in good condition, poor housing construction
 
1-6 months, China has started construction of urban income housing projects of 4.7 million units, the basic completion of the 2.6 million units of affordable housing projects, has now completed 67.1 percent and 52 percent of the program this year, compared to previous years, the first half of this year to protect acceptable completion of housing projects. Real estate, but presents an entirely different story, the Ministry of Housing and Urban data show that June sales data of the real estate has improved, but determined that the current steel demand for real estate commencement and completion of the data are worse. Taking into account the off-season in July, building materials consumption, recent rebar demand is difficult to have improved. However, as the start and construction of leading indicators of real estate sales data stabilization and recovery, if sales data has improved persists, then the steel consumption is expected within the next 3-6 months will be the improvement



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