Pig market, waiting for turning point
Pork prices in the CPI in the share of the weight is around 3%, is one of the CPI trend is the most important factor. Last year, the price of pork soaring, driven by the CPI has been steadily rising, the CPI increase up to 6.5% in July last year. This year, the price of pork all the way down, driving the CPI up all the way down, and the June CPI fell to 2.6 percent, marking the slowest gain in 21 months since the.
Statistics show that the fluctuations in pig production rule 2 to 3 year cycle. Round of fluctuation cycle began in 2010, pork prices began in June 2010 to July 2011 and August, peaked in late January 2012, began to fall, so far has fallen by nearly six months.
Soybean meal, corn prices, driven by soaring pork prices to decline further space is limited, and the local has been a strong rebound. Search pigs network statistics show that last week the average price of slaughter pigs to 13.81 yuan / kg, representing a decrease of 30.0%, Bulan enthusiasm has slowed; the national pig grain price ratio of 5.73:1 for 16 weeks low 6:1 breakeven line, down 31.08 percent.
Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Guoxiang said that the Chinese imports of soybeans, soybean prices will inevitably affect the further cooking oil, and soybean meal prices will promote domestic feed prices rise, and conduction to the meat area, but there will be a process.
At present, the decline in pork prices has slowed. As of yesterday, the domestic average price of slaughter hogs rose slightly from the previous day about 0.1 yuan, Henan, Jiangsu, Hubei and other areas prices rose more obvious. Commerce Department data also showed that in June, in the consumption price index of agricultural products, meat decline narrowed to -0.1%.
Benjamin FUNG, search pigs network chief adviser, said, "From our survey, by the piglet prices and rising costs of feed, labor and other factors, not much room for further decline in the price of pork." If the price of pork can not be stabilized, resulting in pig comprehensive account of loss, may reduce the phenomenon of excessive breeding stock, to September peak season consumption of pork, meat prices will rise sharply.
Animal products account for a large proportion of the consumer, if the latter pork prices and led to other livestock product prices, the inflation situation will be a greater pressure. "Medium-term Chinese Institute Senior Fellow Dr. Li Li analysis said that from the point of view of the inflation cycle, generally a cycle will be maintained for about three years, which rise and fall of each half of the time. From last year to this year's round of inflation down cycle will be an end in July and August, marks the beginning of a new cycle of inflation rose that much time in the coming year China may go through the general price recovery stage. Data from the ring than the CPI, the price hub are constantly elevated, which means that the next time a high inflation may be higher than 6%.
Relaxed environment to promote the CPI up
The inflation rate provides a space for the Government to stimulate the introduction of the policy. Accompanied by the decline in inflation, the focus of national macro-control has been turned to a gradual transition to stable growth by the anti-inflation from the central bank for nearly two months for interest rate cuts are also able to see the intent of the country. However, the advent of the pig inflation "will change this situation?
"Although the recent hog prices may be the turning point, but the CPI proportion of the larger vegetable prices continue to fall, may prevent the rapid ascent of the CPI, from the seasonal pattern of prices of vegetables, in October, supply began to gradually reduce the prices of vegetables the end of fall., CPI turning point came in the third quarter, the probability is relatively large. think the mid-researcher at the Institute in the river. Commerce Department statistics also show that vegetable prices fallen for four weeks in June plunged 14 percent, which also contributed to the most important factor in food prices fall in June.
Yu Jiang said that the whole, due to inflation continued to fall in the first half of the year, so even if the CPI in the third quarter or fourth quarter rebound will not affect the national regulation for the full year target. But for next year's inflation situation is still not taken lightly. "As long as the economy began to disadvantaged recovery rather than further deterioration, once again cut interest rates may not be the central or national decision-making sector preferred, may be replaced 1-2 times down prospective."
"This year, the year the problem not expected the high point of the next round of inflation in the first half of next year, but the high points higher." Said Li Li, the imported inflation caused by fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products in the future may be, will always exist, the policy layer tolerance for inflation may follow continuously uplift. Unless the return to 3 percent inflation, the State may be appropriate to consider adjusting the policy efforts. Conduction and rebound of inflation takes time, Prior to this, it is expected that regardless of the monetary policy or fiscal policy will be no major changes will continue to loose.



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