Since July, some commodity prices, signs of a rebound. The agency predicted that commodity prices gradually stabilized in the third quarter to help the producer price index (PPI) bid farewell to the first half of the unilateral downward trend and usher in the inflection point of the current cycle. Experts believe that the PPI is expected to pick up the fundamental reason is that domestic demand is gradually restored, which will ensure that the upstream commodity prices rebound will be gradual conduction to the middle and lower reaches, and ultimately will enable industrial enterprises to bid farewell to this year's profit of negative growth.
July, several commodity prices rebound, the most obvious is undoubtedly the international crude oil. Supply concerns caused by geopolitical reasons and is expected to launch in the U.S. QE3 enhanced support, the international crude oil prices for the 5 trading days up to promote the change rate of the three stabilized positive.
By the rebound in international oil prices and domestic demand has picked up the impact of domestic refined oil market situation improves. "Due to early July, some businesses ahead of bargain-hunting has added resources, so the price adjustment after July 10, around the market buying and selling atmosphere as good as the main expected active, but with the majority of the middle and lower reaches of businesses and end users to focus on the arrival of the replenishment tide, the domestic market trading gradually warm, around the main gasoline and diesel to take the volume significantly enlarged sales progress in general-than-expected, many cities also completed ahead of schedule this month marketing plan. "Treasure Island information introduced.
Consider loose channel to the global re-enter the game between the oil-producing countries and oil consuming countries to increase, Xiao-Ling Zhao, China Macroeconomic Information Network analyst, late in international oil prices will be difficult to substantial decline in domestic oil prices will also be difficult to achieve the "four a fall. " In fact now the market is widely predicted that price adjustment window opens in August 9th, domestic oil prices may be raised by 350 yuan / ton.
Coal prices in stabilized. "While market trading is still relatively light, but the actual transaction price of coal has been very down, the Bohai Rim thermal coal index fell from more than 20 yuan / ton early weekly narrowed to 11 yuan per ton." Qinhuangdao coal network information An Zhiyuan, director of the Centre, "Economic Information Daily" reporters said the recent coal prices into the stabilizing process.
Port coal prices will remain in late July in the process of bottom, stabilized stabilized in August likely "Zhuochuang information analyst Liu Dongnuo August summer coal season, the number of coal power plant day greatly increased. Out to complement the inventory and evade the Sea, August typhoon, as well as to respond to late September, the Datong-Qinhuangdao line maintenance and other factors, downstream users will send a certain amount of shipping capacity with coal, domestic coal market is getting better and better to some extent. The second half of 8,9 month, with a range of investment infrastructure projects, to promote the downstream industry needs coal stabilized opportunity.
Soybean meal, corn and other agricultural products is a strong climb in the futures markets at home and abroad, thereby bringing the Commerce Department and the Ministry of Agriculture to monitor the consumption rebound in prices of agricultural products.
Of course, not all commodity prices have rebounded, such as the price of building materials and steel is still in shock downstream. "Although some varieties of short-term rebound, but the current market trends, talk about steel prices bottoming out is also worth too early." Treasure Island, analyst Zhang moon.
The signs of a rebound in commodity prices since July, coupled with the current total demand revealing signs of recovery, and let the market believe that the inflection point of the PPI is likely to come in the third quarter. CITIC Securities chief economist Chujian Fang said that the stabilization and recovery of investment, consumption is gradually stabilizing external demand growth slightly more than expected, June data show that aggregate demand is positive change.
Especially Hongye, senior macroeconomic analyst at Essence Securities, said the drop in prices of upstream products is the callback of the main reasons of industrial prices in June, while the downstream processing industry prices sign of slowing down. Taking into account the factors to the inventory of rhythm and commodity price adjustment temporarily slowing, PPI may decline slowed down, began to hit new lows. We construct the model predictions, PPI up will hit the bottom, in the third quarter and fourth quarter rebounded. "Wang Yuwen said the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.
The arrival of the PPI inflection point is thought to contribute to the end of this year, profits of industrial enterprises continued to negative growth. Current industrial areas facing deflationary pressure, the production of the product to sell on price of course, loss only when the PPI is no longer fell, corporate profits will it be possible to restore. "Researcher Shi of Peking University's China National Accounts and Economic Growth Research Center initiator of "Economic Information Daily" reporters said.
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