Quantitative easing is expected is still
While Bernanke has not yet policy to make a stance, investors, the recent Federal Reserve or the launch QE3 speculation are endless. The foreign media reported that investors hope Bernanke answered in this week, including the introduction of the possibility of QE3, and the Federal Reserve may consider other policy instruments.
In previously published minutes of the meeting, the Fed said its internal officials have yet to introduce further easing measures to reach an agreement. Part of the officials believe that the current economic situation, it is necessary to introduce further policy action; another part of the officials that should be suspended to introduce further stimulus measures to prevent the deterioration of the economic situation, no ammunition available.
However, the Fed also pointed out that the deterioration of the economic or financial conditions, quantitative easing is still the Fed's policy options. The Fed meeting will be held at the end of this month, and the latest policy decisions announced in August 1. Analysts speculated that Bernanke or the end of August at the Jackson Hole forum QE3 clues given.
As more and more signs of U.S. economic growth has slowed, foreign media last week's monthly survey showed that more respondents expect the Fed will take further action, however, the majority of respondents did not that there is sufficient justification for implementing such initiatives. At the same time, economists will be 2012 U.S. economic growth is expected to be reduced to 2% lower than the expected 2.5 percent in May.
Wang Tao, UBS special chief economist, said in a research report released on the 16th, on the one hand, the Federal Reserve within the QE3 has not yet formed the mainstream opinion, on the other hand, Bernanke also need time to clear the situation for future action good bedding, QE3 I am afraid there is no market so close. UBS believes that the Fed policy meeting on August 1 launch QE3's less likely, by contrast, the greater the probability of the FOMC meeting from September 12 to 13 introduced measures.
Fiscal cliff is a large risk
Bernanke had warned that if the Ministry of Finance failed to take prompt action, the U.S. economy will fall into the so-called "fiscal cliff, that is, the tax increase fiscal spending is slashed, it will have a negative impact of the U.S. economic growth prospects. But now, the fact is, before the general election held in November, the U.S. Congress seems reluctant to take action.
The Vanguard Group, said on the 16th, the United States must reduce its government debt by 2016, or bond investors will "rebel", pushing up lending rates. The company held $ 148.2 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, the largest non-governmental holders of U.S. Treasury bonds. Robert Orville Stewart, the person in charge of the company's fixed income department, said the lack of reliable and long-term plan about four years or so, the market will speak out, "had enough".
Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Si Woke testimony released this week, "Bernanke will again be on the financial precipice plan criticized, he had mentioned this issue, an issue that has been to dampen U.S. economic growth. "In addition, the Siwo Ke also said that Bernanke said that the situation in Europe is a big risk, and therefore QE3 still on the table.
However, Si Woke also believe that America's so-called "financial cliff" is still can be controlled, "after the elections, the 'lame-duck Congress' failure to the introduction of financial problems, solutions, and the issue was pushed to March next year 31, will trigger a new round of U.S. downgrade the storm. "
Economic outlook is somewhat negative
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