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Steel overcapacity exacerbated by interest rate cuts short-term is difficult to

In the first half of this year, the overall domestic steel industry downturn, mainly by the domestic slowdown in economic growth, the impact of weak demand for downstream industries at the same time, the steel overcapacity exacerbated by the cost of raw materials is still at a high level, to the inventory of the slow process of export situation remains grim restricting the steel industry, the healthy and steady development.
 
Due to the arrival of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter of last year, steel production is declining dramatically and after the Spring Festival this year, steel prices only appear in mid-February to early April rose slightly, then turn down again, as of the current steel prices in the lowest level this year. May before, domestic large and medium-sized steel enterprises realized profits of only 2.533 billion yuan, down 94.26 percent, the profitability may fall further in June.

According to China Steel Association statistics, in late 2010, China's steelmaking capacity of 800 million tons in 2011 new production of steel production capacity of about 80 million tons, taking into account the elimination of backward production capacity of about 30 million tons at the end of crude steel production capacity reached 8.5 million tons. Metallurgy Industry Planning Research Institute data show that, as of the end of 2011, China's crude steel production capacity has reached about 900 million tons. Last year, China's crude steel production of 683 million tons, domestic steel production is a serious surplus of.

Futures: the main rebar after the opening of the 1210 contract fell slightly in midday trading to close at 4080 yuan, a slight 0.20%, far from the 1301 contract shock down, midday, to close at 4054 yuan edged down to 0.12%. Coke, the main 1209 contract intraday also fell slightly, midday, to close at 1756 yuan, down 0.40 percent.

Spot: According to the Chinese steel network data monitoring on the spot market, there are still some areas prices continue to fall, including Beijing and Tianjin, three rebar fell 10 yuan to 4100 yuan / ton.
Raw materials: iron ore prices quote steady, external disk 63.5% / 63% Indian iron ore fines at $ 139.5 / t, the domestic Hebei Tangshan Coal Mine 1120 yuan / ton.

Inventory: the social stock of the domestic steel market to rise again at the end of June, at a time when the July high temperature period, the domestic steel downstream construction are affected, even if it is cut in interest rates to stimulate investment recovery, but subject to weather conditions, short-term rare to embody. At the same time, steel downstream industry is also facing the pressure of finished goods inventory consumption, domestic June PMI data, manufacturing finished goods inventory is still on the rise.

The supply side: The latest World Steel Association data show, in May 2012 global steel capacity utilization to 79.6%, in the recent four mid-general to maintain 80% of the production can use the level of description of other countries and regions of the iron and steel production can be also the excess the.

The cost: At present, the rebar average cost of 4050 yuan / ton, unchanged from the market price. Cold-rolled, hot-rolled in the loss-making state. From the local area more sensitive to steel prices in Tangshan region, refining blank downtime powerful, billet tight supply. Steel production the momentum strong.

Capacity: China Steel Industry Association data show that the key large and medium-sized enterprises in mid-June crude steel output to 1.655 million tons, the mid-ring decreased by 1.74%, the national estimate is 1.9705 million tons, the mid-ring fell 1.4 percent, crude steel The production is tending to fall.

The demand side: within the previous large-scale investment in advance overdraft steel consumption, the weakness is inevitable. In response to the adverse effects of the financial crisis in 2008, China have launched a 4 trillion economic stimulus policies. Investment projects have mushroomed in the country earth to spread the monetary growth rate also hit a record high. One of the main indicators of investment in fixed assets reflects the demand for steel, for example, the growth rate of nearly 30% in 2009 and 3 percentage points higher than the previous high in 2003. Phased view from 1995 to 2002, belonging to the solid vote in the stage of slow growth, with an average annual 12%; 2003-2011, average annual growth of 25%, an increase of 13 percent and growing rapidly. After 2010, growth fell sharply, steel sectors bear the brunt of a massive expansion of pre-production, it is hard to match demand.

At the same time, domestic steel production still further expansion. Steel associated information to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year, the new blast furnace 27, the iron production capacity total to add about 35 million tons, of which the Tangshan region accounted for 11. Now years ago, in May, the total domestic output of pig iron to 278 million tons, an increase of 7.036 million tons.

In addition, the blast furnace production capacity under construction in about 100 million tons 9.2 million tons of iron smelting capacity and WISCO Fangchenggang steel base of 8.5 million tons of iron production, including Baosteel Zhanjiang steel base. If you count the the Shougang long steel urban transformation of 500 tons and the planned new 300 million tons of steel, as well as the Anshan Iron and the Ningde steel base construction (construction of annual steel output of 12 million tons), Rizhao steel bases (building 8.5 million annual steel t), then will add nearly 30 million tons of steel production capacity. According to statistics, in 2011 China on the blast furnace 63, iron-smelting capacity total additional 85.59 million tons. New iron production capacity is still a large scale this year, if the major steel mills not to postpone the blast furnace commissioning date is expected to remain about 80 million tons.

Of course, in order to adjust the product structure of the iron and steel industry, strengthen energy conservation, the state has been to promote the steel industry, eliminate backward production capacity. This year, the Ministry of Industry plans to phase out backward production capacity to 10 million tons, steel production capacity of 7.8 million tons. However, according to the Steel Union information to incomplete statistics, China has 15 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government issued a 2012 industrial eliminate backward production capacity target task, the cumulative eliminating backward production capacity of 19.59 million tons, steel production capacity of 13.768 million tons, exceeding the objectives and tasks assigned by the Ministry of Industry. These 15 areas, including Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning Province, Jiangsu Province, Shandong Province, Hubei Province, and other steel-producing province.
 
Throughout 2011, these six provinces realized a total pig iron production of 380 million tons, accounting for 60% of the national total. Expected this year, eliminating backward production in more than 2000 tons, so this year actually add 5000-60000000 tons iron production capacity.



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