● If the debt crisis in Europe can not be as soon as possible be resolved, dragged down by emerging economies will become more serious slowdown in emerging economies, the speed is clearly faster than people's imagination.
 
● an increase of the second quarter GDP will be lower than 8%, or even close to the 7.5% annual economic growth target to record the lowest growth rate since the financial crisis.
 
July 12, China announced the day before the six months, economic data, Brazil, South Korea announced a surprise interest rate cut. South Korea is for the first time since 2009 to cut interest rates, the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.0 percent. Brazil is the eighth consecutive interest rate cuts, lowered benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.0 percent of the record low level.
 
Brazil, South Korea did not wait six months of economic data of China's reasonable. Wang Jun, Vice Minister of China International Economic and Exchange Center of consulting and research, expects the second quarter of China's GDP growth will fall to 7.6 percent. This performance record the lowest growth rate since the outbreak of the financial crisis.
Emerging economies were once high hopes for the 2008 financial crisis, the emerging markets save the world. This time, after the rapid develop loose monetary policy, the world are waiting to come from emerging markets "victory" message.
 
Emerging economies, collective stall
 
July 12, South Korea's central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, South Korea three and a half years since the first interest rate cuts. As for the reason to cut interest rates the Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Committee held a regular meeting that day, said the debt crisis in Europe did not find effective solutions to European financial crisis may be transferred to the real economy, the uncertainty of global economic trends are also increasing. Meanwhile, the deteriorating export conditions in South Korea, the domestic market downturn, the Korean economy is facing a huge downward pressure. Bank of Korea decided to cut its benchmark interest rate.
 
Coincidentally, the same view of the pace of economic recovery faltering, in Beijing on July 12, Brazil's central bank benchmark rate down 0.5 percent to 8 percent to a record low, the central bank's eighth consecutive rate cut since August last year. Brazil in the first quarter economic growth rate of only 0.8%, an increase of even less than half of the United States. Yesterday, the Brazilian government released data show that the country's retail sales figures drop in May, but also the Brazilian government wants to can sometimes retail sector recession in industrial production and business investment to maintain its vitality vanished.
 
"If the European debt crisis can not be as soon as possible be resolved, dragged down by emerging economies will become more serious, but the slowdown in emerging economies, the speed is clearly faster than people's imagination." A banking industry analysts have accepted "International Finance told reporters that the current market generally look forward to easing monetary policy of countries launched gradually assuming the role of the effectiveness of stimulating economic growth, however global economic uncertainty is getting higher and higher, the economic growth of emerging economies, whether in the second half of the year turn for the better and more and more difficult to judge. "
 
Murat Ulgen, chief economist of HSBC Group, Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, said the past year, most of the pace of growth in emerging markets in a weak state, but the slowdown in the inflation rate, just to give decision-makers to stimulate the growth of space. He predicted that the introduction of follow-up will be more measures. Yesterday, the Brazilian central bank interest rate committee also said that low inflation in Brazil to further interest rate cuts provide a larger space, the Brazilian central bank may cut interest rates further in the future still.



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