The domestic steel market in June as expected, the shock adjustment, further fermentation of the Spanish debt crisis, triggering panic in commodity diving, domestic steel demand continues to slump.
Market fundamentals data has improved in July, but the magnitude is quite limited. Macroeconomic composite index a slight rise; small increase at a rate of the mobility index; cost composite index a slight decline; and demand data as a whole held steady. The short term, steel prices will remain at the bottom of the adjusted trend.
First, macroeconomic indicators will increase at a rate
The small increase at a rate of macroeconomic indicators, the turning point of the trend is worth the wait. Fixed asset investment growth in May was 21.04%, rose by 1.79 percentage points more than in April; M1 growth to 3.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points more than in April, M2 growth was 13.2%, up 0.4 percentage points more than in April, M1 and the difference of the M2 growth rate was -9.70%, unchanged from April. New yuan loans of 793.2 billion, a more substantial rise.
To maintain pre-judge the year 2012, fixed asset investment growth rate at around 20%, liquidity will gradually recover to normal levels. Domestic economic restructuring and the deteriorating external environment to produce the effect of superimposed, resulting in the macroeconomic situation is extremely complex, greater uncertainty.
Although the market is the general expectation of the overall shift of macroeconomic policy to maintain growth, the policy also has significant loose, but still are mainly in flexibility to adjust, at least in the fourth quarter after a comprehensive system to maintain growth policy side there is the possibility of the introduction of. The long term, large-scale similar to the 4 trillion stimulus plan is not what we need, its effect is limited, the negative effect is very obvious, while the domestic economy the smooth realization of the transformation and upgrading is more important.
According to the research, macroeconomic factors, changes leading to changes in about three quarters of the steel prices are at least two quarters, such as the end of 2008, the stimulus is markedly in 2009. Therefore, in the year 2012, actually can not expect the steel market of macroeconomic policy will produce an important boost. In turn, we should be concerned about the market itself to adjust the beat observed when the economic downward trend reversed, and a soft landing can be achieved in the short term.
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