About to enter summer in July, from the time point of view, the steel city to enter the basic seasonal demand during the lowest ebb. With the advent of the seasonal high temperature wet periods, outdoor projects in the construction progress is greatly slowed down, at the same time cause further sharp drop in demand for steel; In other words, in a time of about 1 to 2 months in the future. Steel City will be a new fundamental demand for vacancies of; However, to protect the housing market whether fatigue, such as the same period in 2011, I basically does not have any idea.
Our point of view clear, may be a further weakening in demand fundamentals, the Steel City in July; steel thus produced to the inventory to continue to slow down; or will result in steel prices continue to be easy to fall hard up, but I do not exclude part of the middle bargain-hunting adventure providers in this period to buy the dips caused by short-term price rally.
Demand in the doldrums, June crude steel output to pick up again to more than 2 million tons high; major state-owned steel enterprises under the administrative requirements had gone against the tide high production, thought to maintain good economic data to prepare to meet the eighteen large held all the maintenance of stability, making the domestic steel production can only remain high; state-owned steel enterprises take the initiative to cut the insured is basically less likely to want within a short time.
Future demand side will get better, from the current economic point of view, it is difficult to hold the expected very good, analysts believe that early July, the upcoming release of the possibility of the national manufacturing PMI index continued to decline in June; at the same time China's steel exports soaring sharply in May in the West facing poor economic situation in Europe and the United States and other trading nation continue to implement various types of steel anti-dumping investigation is bound to highs; temporarily difficult to alleviate the pressure on domestic steel supply.
From the current economic situation, in July, steel prices will bottom of the trend, due to the end of June in the semi-annual financial cycle, the enterprise back section of the pressure, coupled with the pre-steel pricing advantage, only to accelerate the selling stock, driving down the market. The price later to get a better settlement price as the only choice for many traders. July the first half of the end of June, the steel price trend will continue for accelerated bottom.
July very may continue to reduce the reserve, the money supply will also have to relax, only moderately relaxed monetary policy to cushion the economic downward pressure on the capital side of the loose is not a problem, the key is when the downstream demand can really start? In Dragon Boat Festival, the author expressed concern that such a message, the new export tax rebate policy will be officially implemented on July
1. Adjusted export tax rebate the new regulations, including the expansion of manufacturing enterprises to the acquisition of goods the export tax rebate range, part of the export of goods from the tax adjustment for the tax exemption, tax refund filing deadline by 90 days to adjust to a maximum of 470 days, increasing the content of export goods duty-free management, canceled of small businesses and new export business enterprise 12 month audit requirement. Detailed adjustments to the tariff number I did not grasp, but if the original cold rolled sheet tax rebate increased from 0 to 5 percent will be steel exports have a huge role in promoting the recent devaluation of the RMB trend is clearly a combination of both, the domestic resources the outflow will directly reduce the market pressure on the stock, play a positive role in the recovery of the domestic market, normal price order and also won the "structural adjustment" for the domestic steel industry time.
From Futures disk analysis, the main contract in the 4150 first-line Difficult to accelerate the fall, 4000 the front line of the intensity of support costs and steel factory policy analysis, current billet in 3700, together with the rolling costs and transport charges The actual steel production costs are 4000 first-line, although it does not exclude raw material costs linked to declines led to reduced production costs, but its decline, to do more profitable chance.
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