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Expert: The Diaoyu Islands dispute is a long-standing battle war short-term unfo

Japan has been trying to "small run" form, the use of every opportunity to move forward to seize the island plans to achieve its hope that the "actual control" approach is very persistent. The friction between the Philippines and Japan undoubtedly is an opportunity.

Huangyan Island, High Noon Philippine struggle to enter the end of "cross into the act," Fang Daxiu intimate with the Philippine military. Central News Agency reported that the three practice-ship of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces on May 28 will arrive in the Philippines goodwill visit of five days in order to strengthen the relationship between the two countries' naval forces. Although the Philippine military said the visit of foreign warships and Huangyan Island and Philippine events. However, in the current situation, Japan and the Philippines to engage in so-called goodwill activities, targeted, but a glance.

May 31, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party announced the second motion in the House election of the Convention. Around the Tokyo Metropolitan Government plans to "buy" the Diaoyu Islands "island method", the first time explicitly stated in the motion will Diaoyu Islands nationalize policy. Japan's Jiji news agency reported on Diaoyu Islands nationalization "approach, the motion stressed that" Some of the islands and waters surrounding the effective use of "and made clear that" will change the Self-Defense Forces for the Defence Forces ".

In recent years, from official to private, from the military to the politicians on the Diaoyu Islands issue frequent moves, trying to further consolidate control of the actual possession of the Diaoyu Islands. Won the Island Plan "is a smoke bomb?

May 26, the closing of the 6th Japan and the Pacific Islands Forum Summit in Okinawa, Japan. Noda, Japanese Prime Minister announced at the meeting, a maximum of $ 500 million of assistance will be provided to the Pacific island countries in the next three years. Noda stressed after the summit is not for a specific third countries; However, many Japanese media that Japan and the U.S. intention is very clear, that "at the summit in cooperation to prevent the dominance of the region fall China hands. "

Posture think, Professor, Institute of International Relations at Renmin University of China, meeting with special emphasis on the importance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, called for the strengthening of the cooperation of maintaining maritime order, "apparently for the consideration of the Diaoyu Islands issue and the South China Sea issue, and lobbying for U.S. The motivation is very clear, mainly in order to contain China's influence in the Pacific Islands. "

The mainland official media, "Global Times" on May 28 published a report entitled "Japan in China's neighboring tight busy", the breakdown of Japan is the Asia-Pacific region launched a series of "China's diplomatic offensive, and quoted scholars have commented said: "From the purchase of the Diaoyu Islands, to a variety of exercises, diplomacy to win over Japan's recent frequent action against China, and even form an everywhere and the competition between the atmosphere, trying to depict China as an Asia-Pacific dragons."

To carry out diplomatic offensive at the same time, Japan will also make military preparations. Japan's "Sankei Shimbun" disclosure of Japanese land, sea and air self-defense forces to China to seize the Diaoyu Islands, "as developed by the imaginary background" won the war plan "on May 9. This won the Island Plan, - once the Diaoyu Islands, "the Chinese military force to attack the forced landing," the Japanese side will take three operational programs:

Landing operations. Once confirmed, China's military captured the Senkaku Islands, GSDF Western aspects of general company responsible for the defense will be rushed to the Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands), the implementation of the landing operations, the expulsion of the Amphibious Force and the airborne troops.

Implementation of the maritime strike. Maritime Self Defense Force sent out vessels rushed to the Senkaku Islands in waters around, fight back to the Chinese fleet, the Air Self-Defense Force fighter aircraft will be put into the assault.

Finally, the air defense operations. In order to prevent the Chinese Air Force fighters and the high hit rate of the missile attack on the Japanese military bases and other facilities, not only investment in the GSDF high shooting Hedo (artillery) forces will also be put into the ground-based interceptor missile units.

Japan looks like this "ambitious" plan, the mainland's military commentator, the Zhujiang Ming the author pointed out that the plan there is a certain irrationality, may be a deliberate leak of smoke and mirrors. He proposed that in any case plan, such programs should be kept strictly confidential, or is likely to affect the outcome of the war. "No battle plan has been disclosed can be regarded as invalid plan expired."

Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University professor Liu Jiangyong told reporters that similar military deployment in Japan have been a number of options, this is not no secret, but it reflects the tendency of Japan's Diaoyu Islands dispute and the overall military strategy linked to more and more obvious. He said that the post-war Japan in late 2010 through the fourth "National Defense Program Outline, had been clear that Japan's future military defense focus westward transfer of the islands, Diaoyu Islands are also included within its scope.

Many at home and abroad comments view that Japan's high-profile disclosure "won the battle plan in order to cope with Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, the purchase of the Diaoyu Islands plan, the possession of the Diaoyu Islands to pave the way to accelerate from the military, legal, actual control.

April 17 this year, visiting the United States, Japan, Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, known as the far right Washington threatened Tokyo Metropolitan Government is prepared to buy the Diaoyu Islands, part of the island from the hands of private owners ":" China said. Diaoyu Islands, completely unreasonable and now Tokyo must be 'bought' the Diaoyu Islands, and has already decided. "

As of April 26, according to the Sankei Shimbun reported, donations accepted accounts opened by Shintaro Ishihara has received more than 910 million yen donation. Even more absurd is that the anti-China separatist organization "World Uyghur Congress," the head F1 Kadeer also Tokyo Japanese right-wing groups to submit a 10 million yen in cash, claiming to help the Tokyo Metropolitan Government to "buy" the Diaoyu Islands.

Japan and South Korea held in Beijing in mid-May, the fifth summit summit during the controversy caused by the Diaoyu Islands issue between top leaders of the Sino-Japanese outbreak. In bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao repeatedly stressed that the Diaoyu Islands since ancient times of China's territory ", Noda, Japanese Prime Minister stressed that its" Japan's inherent territory ". The Prime Minister met broke, Chinese President Hu Jintao canceled bilateral talks with Noda after. Then, the CPC Central Military Commission vice chairman of the postponed May 19, has just agreed to visit Japan intention, said, "for official reasons, the recent visit to Japan is more difficult.

Former Japanese defense minister Yuriko Koike, the author said, China is now intended the term "core interests" for the Diaoyu Islands dispute with Japan, even for the South China Sea claims, he claims that "China is expanding its 'core interests' will be a source of instability in East Asia and Southeast Asia, this instability is most likely to lead to military conflict.

The USSR believes that a careful reading of this formulation should be made from a historical perspective. In the 1970s, the conclusion of the Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty, the Diaoyu Islands issue has not been regarded as the core interests to consider. The 1990s, after the entry into force of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Diaoyu Islands, the value of competing interests is rising rapidly, but still not enough to constitute a core interest of China. Until the 21st century, especially since 2010, Japan has taken a series of measures up to the Islands on military strategy, the territorial dispute was to expand. "If Japan and then further program development, it is no longer a simple problem of territorial disputes, which may affect the interests and national security of China's national sovereignty, the problem is likely to deepen as China's 'core interests'."

Over the years, the policy of the Diaoyu Islands, Japan can be described as "step by step for the business". USSR analysis is that Japan is trying through this small step Shaanxi run "form, using a variety of opportunities to move forward wins the Island Plan to achieve its hope that the" actual control "approach is very persistent. The friction between the Philippines and Japan undoubtedly is an opportunity.

2010, according to Kyodo News, in response to the Diaoyu Islands issue, Japan's deployment of troops focus from the northeastern part of the four northern islands transferred to the southwest near the Diaoyu Islands, the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) Islands, and plans in 2020 will include the southwestern islands, including the number of troops to 20,000. In addition, Japan's defense ministry also conducted the first large-scale expansion program in 1972.

Posture believe that the two sides in the issue of the Diaoyu Islands has been recognized by the existence of differences, Japan will be reluctant to face in China, but after the collision since 2010, Japan began to deny the dispute, action is also more strident in Japan seems to be trying to international community to create the impression that a "Diaoyu Islands is Japan's strong unreasonable", "This is a big change."

In January of this year, the Japanese government claimed that "tentatively named" part of the island around the Diaoyu Islands. In March, the Integrated Maritime Policy of the Japanese Cabinet Division has announced the name of the 39 uninhabited islands, including the affiliated islands of the Diaoyu Islands. Recently, a Japanese Self-Defense news hit the newspapers to be stationed in the Philippines.

Some analysts believe that the illegal occupation of the Diaoyu Islands have been more than 30 years, another 10 years, will face a more complex international dispute. Therefore, for Japan or China, the next 10 years, may become the Diaoyu Islands dispute "sprint stage.

However, in the USSR's opinion, this argument is debatable. "Of course we have to defend national sovereignty, but also do not have to 'self-excited'." Posture do not think that the Diaoyu Islands issue in the foreseeable future there will be real results, "or a long-standing battle, which is both political wisdom and will of a contest of force. "


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