Fundamentals improved, the recent the rebar period of price shocks to rise, the focus on the gradual shift forward 1301 contract premium remains the same, showing that current investors are not optimistic about the outlook. Sustainability efforts to cut the steel post-and real estate needs for the better will be the focus for investors, the recent Shanghai steel market turmoil intensified, the trend is more independent, the outlook does not exclude the next low.
Steel still keep the low-profit
Costing model to estimate the costs and profits of the Shanghai area of ??steel, since January 2012, the Shanghai area of ??rebar profits will always be in the near break-even point, most of the time in the low-profit status, the use of imported ore The profits are usually slightly higher than domestic ore. Estimate the current cost of crude steel prices (excluding tax) is about 3310 yuan / ton (domestic ore) and 3300 yuan / ton (imported ore), estimate the cost of the Shanghai region HRB400 rebar for 3450-3460 yuan / ton, tax price (17% VAT) is about 4035-4050 yuan / ton, is very close to the current 4070 yuan / ton Price.
The presence of low-profit was mainly due to raw material price decline is greater than the spot price of steel. April iron ore market since most of the time in a down channel, and the imported ore port stocks are still high, June 8, the statistical data of 96.66 million tons, compared with the previous week, up 950,000 tons, ending four consecutive weeks of decline. Iron ore price index as compared with the same period in May was down about 5 percent, and domestic ore decreases significantly compared with large imports of ore, 63.5% Indian powder quoted in the mainstream $ 137 / ton. Shipping market transactions bleak, Capesize cargo of iron ore is brought to its knees, of BCI index has dropped to its lowest point since 2009. Shipping index is usually the first, before its steady rise of iron ore prices is expected to still remain more vulnerable.
The average daily production to a new high
Steel Association estimates mid-May average daily production data appeared gradually reduce the signs of the early and mid were 2.0453 million tons and 2.0395 million tons, remained above the 2 million tons, while late there have been more substantial down, down to 1.9596 million tons. According to the China Steel Association estimates, in May, the average daily production of about 2.013 million tons, 12,000 tons less than in April. Bureau of Statistics announced on May crude steel production data for 1.9752 million tons, a decline of 2.18%.
The past two years, the trend in average daily crude steel production data for April and May during the year, the highest probability of a larger, so do not rule out the ring than the re-emergence of the possibility of negative growth in June. Overall, the signs of May the average daily production data has been Guaitou down, sustained reduction may cause oversupply in June eased, but the supply is significantly greater than the demand situation in the short term will continue in the case of no significant improvement in demand, steel prices difficult to have a significant improvement.
Monetary easing effects of declining
The recent introduction of a series of measures to stimulate the economy, a greater impact on the level of market psychology, shortly expected from the future recovery of the downstream demand from the perspective of the relaxation of liquidity are only futures disk to produce more short-term impact experienced a sharp decline about 10 percent of the pre-, wheezing rebound is weak, and the afternoon to continue down a high probability.
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