Recent China of steel market good constantly, has macroeconomic policy level of stimulus, also has entity economic rebound of pull expected; anyway steel industry is is intensive of good message stimulus with, but only let people feel cold of is, Terminal with steel needs still is forsty, analyst pointed out that, if needs no clear of improve, all of good message are is futile; but I from latest of mills price area view, is feel out late steel price of bottom information although does not clear, but fell space has is limited.
　　 It is understood that on June 11, Sands, sky wing steel, steel, steel and other major steel manufacturers of building materials market in mid-adjust the overall stabilisation policy, threaded steel, section steel continues to slightly downgrade, shortfalls in place. From the overall action of the steel plant, building materials manufacturer order completion good and organization in place, coupled with increased as steel maintenance scheduling; now, steel mills, steel prices have stabilized in the late end of building, transfer to downstream steel products from stock markets, businesses may be further stabilised, national prices of steel products hit space is limited.
　　 But as national steel city weathervane of Baosteel downward July steel price hundred Yuan above, this is 2012 yilai Baosteel first significantly downward monthly steel price policy; analysis personnel pointed out that, this times downward basic in expected, previously sheet class steel price fell range has up 7% above, substantially downward real for insurance orders of lift; while also reflect out sheet main downstream industry car, and home appliances weak, although has good policy support, but rigid needs lower Yes home appliances, and car sales obvious fell, effect sheet consumption. And long products price direction depart from, short-term needs attribution of final steel prices. Slightly bearish attitudes Basic.
　　 Mills maintenance gradually increased, late crude steel capacity continues to down: since May mid-began, as steel price of continued go fell, Mills profit space sharply shrink, active production wishes enhanced; entered June Hou, as needs off-season of comes and Mills internal high inventory raw materials basic consumption, mills has in further reduced capacity; CISA on June 9 latest data displayed: May late national crude steel daily capacity down to 1.96 million tons around, late this a data may continues to reduced, Crude steel capacity rose again a day later to more than 2 million tons less likely to be high.
　　 So view, in Mills led Xia of steel inventory dropped trend also will continued, despite currently steel social inventory more last year over also high out 1.2 million tons above of volume, but in series major infrastructure project investment late one after another started of situation Xia, late needs is also worth looks forward to; currently market of brokers transactions behavior renders small increased trend, description face major good continuous stimulation of situation Xia, steel trade commercial on toilet paper, goods wishes in lapse of half a year more yihou again small increased.
　　 Despite new a round investment plans to produced actual significance Shang of with steel needs also needs 1 months around of prepared time; but in expected enhanced of situation Xia, period steel rebound wishes more clear, this led Xia, spot market of iron ore, and billet, raw materials price rebound wishes is clear, in future of a time within, steel burden price continues to sharply go fell of possibilities not, although Mills currently also exists limited purchased prices of behavior, but adhere to can't how long ; More low raw materials prices has shown later to be so easily, difficult to fall. Steel mills in the near future will begin purchasing inventory supplement, otherwise it is difficult to maintain a relatively high capacity to follow up.
　　 Mills tons steel near cost price, this from Mills latest of price direction can how many see is, East main Mills on June mid-of price, range has tends to smooth, while is because orders organization situation more satisfaction, more important of is Mills continues to sharply cut of space basic disappeared, as steel price of continues to go fell, raw materials price of enterprises stability rebound, cost pressure or will again appeared in Mills internal, this is current Mills despite high production, but almost consistency of take limited purchased prices of policy, Its main purpose should be to expect further down main charge so as to save costs in the price of iron ore, currently being further confrontation between the two sides.
　　 Overall, we pass this round steel price adjustment means General Mills can be considered for some time about the future of steel prices bottomed attitude, willingness to very strong; in this regard, for macro-good intensive and weak final demand continued, we believe that steel prices in the second half of June to end of implementation to build slowly, but the rise is unlikely.



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