Recent market examination and approval to the national development and reform commission on major projects in intensive discussion constantly, even rumors that countries will come again 4 trillion investment plan; For a while, the relevant industry situation is excellent; The steel industry in addition to have run aground already a long time of three big steel project outside, their downstream of the appliances, automobile and railway industries from race to the results, makes the
 
Chinese steel market after a weak a "hot" rise, part of the steel industry has appeared for stabilising signs. In this connection, analysts pointed out; The current steel market still in a slump and it, s demand to took a shadow, the short term steel price trend still does not have the reversal of the conditions, short term rally in probability.
According to the latest report showed the steel market, since the country out of a new round of economic stimulus plan dense, increase the major project investment stable economic growth since the news, China's steel market confidence to late improving step by step, after a brief period of stabilising, rebar, hot coil two varieties stabilising the rebound, still in the process of rising tentative.
 
But it is worth noting that, in the steel price falls speed slow, part of stabilising after the rally, in the market clinch a deal the case local better, low-cost resources to clinch a deal more active; But very decisive high in clinch a deal by strong resistance; Investigators analysis thinks, the reaction from the side of the terminal demand fundamentals endorsement not because of the good news and appear stimulate obvious better; Low resources to clinch a deal that there are parts of the active traders began to enter the middle copy, but relatively limited amount; The whole business operation or continued low inventory, optimal structure model, try to avoid market risk.
 
Terminal demand side to have a fundamental improved, the overall situation is still endorsement deal lacklustre primarily. Today is the last day in May, steel price on the whole were not as expected at the end of the month realize the reason, only online, such as hot coil screw individual species of endorsement to a rebound on signs. From the time the node to see, for the first half of the season ended the steel basic needs. In the next six months, the scope for the summer, outdoor engineering or because of the weather, and progress will be slow further. So as to the actual consumption may go steel weak.
 
But the steel market has been difficult to use the traditional mode simply copy rule, 2011 years of 6 ~ 8 steel price boom in inverse city still remember the scene, jin jiuyin 10 instead of steel price collapse become black time. For 2012 years, including the China, the global steel demand falling is further deepen, our home appliances, automobiles, metal products export also because global economic slowdown in and severe atrophy, domestic related industry production decline synchronization, cause steel production material consumption sharply.
 
In addition, the move to reduce the scale of investment, real estate regulation is still, security room project financing difficulty, construction materials demand dropped most. Market reaction, the current domestic related industries in the steel demand at least reduction above 30%. The demand of the downturn, is creates the market vulnerable cannot change steel the main reason. Despite recent national key launched a number of large project, however form of steel demand with actually over a period of time. May the short-term increase merchants mind better.
 
Steel supply phenomenon still serious. Although the domestic steel inventory continuous 14 weeks in decline, but the steel is far lower than the actual digest the same period productivity gains. Mid-may crude steel production capacity on the national steel mill for 2.0395 million tons, although is a declined, but still than the same period last year more than 100000 tons of level. We in the major steel mill for sampling to understand, since this month of the maintenance plan steel increased, but scale is still low, hard to affect the overall yield sharply; We think that later had experienced further down the price of steel, steel mill pricing is again fell significantly; Steel cut the behavior of the insured independent might just rise, at the edge of the steel mill is still in a small profit, large quantities of active production by a lower risk. That is to say, in the future a period of time, China's steel production will also in higher level; Continue to suppress market rebound in the space.
 
For this, we think the short term terminal demand fundamentals won't have big improvement, there may be a part of every entry copy the middlemen low, but difficult to shake the weakness of the overall situation; At the same time because steelworks high inventory will also make steel enterprises factory price cut, in this case, the steel price does not have completely reverse conditions, short-term policy stimulus act by good good market expectations and drive the price of steel rebound probability.

 



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