Endorsement in May, has endured deep bad siege, hard to break. In many bad factors influence, the domestic steel price last fall, once fell below year lows. Already is the end of the month, is about to enter in June, steel market can break, lead to a good news? Analysts argue, the steel market at present to see, good news to boost limited, with more bad of the face to bring heavy blow.
The macro side-investment demand fatigue, monetary policy take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure
China April before the fixed assets investment down to 2003 was the lowest since, approaching 20% pass. Five months before 20 days, the big four new loan only 34 billion yuan, and more for short-term loans and bills discounting financing, further evidence that the weakness of the domestic investment. The HSBC China in May PMI fell to 48.7, below the 49.3 in April, fully reflects the weakness of economic growth. At present the basic situation of the domestic economy under the macro of overall demand, so the central bank 18, 50 basis points cut of the monetary policy and did not cause the market react to it. Countries hope to speed up the project examination and approval and major projects in order to promote domestic investment, but in fiscal policy without obvious action, both monetary policy or administrative measures are required, and there is no way to non-market increase effectively the market expectations, the second quarter economic touch almost beyond doubt. Spiraling steel prices will encounters the systemic risk.
Capability-crude steel average daily production hit a record high, aggravate contradictions between the supply and demand
18 the steel association issued data shows the national steel early may average daily crude steel production estimates of 2.0453 million tons, a late April yield increase by 10300 tons, up 5.1% from a year ago. Crude steel production is expanding constantly, demand is not optimistic. According to the average daily consumption calculation, 1-this year in April last year the apparent consumption less than the crude steel 790000 tons. April monthly performance apparent consumption for crude steel 56.17 million tons, a drop of 0.5% in March. In the short term, the weak housing market will continue to lead to crude steel consumption weakness. In the long term, due to the steel industry investment still remains high, will further increase in productivity.
real estate remain low downstream, increased risk capital to rupture
The real estate market continues to slump, 2012 1-April housing accumulative total new commenced area appeared for the first time since 2009 negative growth, for-4.1%. Over the same period, total sales of commodities area for four consecutive month in the year-on-year. Compared with the march, China's main city in April in new commodity room house (not including affordable housing) falling prices in the city of more than 61%, and the annulus comparing price rise the city, or have not more than 0.2%. With the total area of the house completed four consecutive months year-on-year growth of 30% higher, housing supply will continue to increase market outlook, in real estate control policies under the precondition of no obvious loosed, and later the real estate market will face is more severe situation, it will lead to a part of the boss of capital to rupture, let the domestic the weak economy down.
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