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Endorsement downstream: slump signs appear warmer

Recently, for engineering machinery industry and real estate industry, as a representative of the steel industry remain low downstream, the consumption of large steel as they, greatly restricts the endorsement of buoyancy. However, to the country's energy subsidies for the household electrical appliance industry, etc is driving force gradually in recovery, the endorsement of a large degree of positive news.
 
Engineering machinery fell by nearly half in the first quarter
In the first quarter this year, industry each categories of products sales up almost "ks". Excavator in q1 2012, total sales of 43851 units, a 41.2% year-on-year drop; Loader total sales of 51244 units, a 27% year-on-year drop; Bulldozers total sales of 2627 units, a 47.2% year-on-year drop; Total sales of 6695 sets of mobile crane, 44.9% year-on-year drop; Roller total sales of 3360 units, up 48.3% decline.
 
In the first quarter of this year, the fixed assets investment further depth of exploration, almost hit the lowest level in nearly eight years. Highway construction, the national highway construction completed investment in the first quarter of 157.5 billion yuan, 9.5% year-on-year drop. One highway construction completed investment of 103.1 billion yuan, 10.5% year-on-year drop.
 
Real estate investment growth depth callback
According to the national bureau of statistics 11, according to figures released in April 1 ~, the national investment in real estate development year-on-year growth of 18.7%, than 1 ~ 3 months growth dropped 4.8%. This is the investment in real estate development for the last eight consecutive months over back growth, and further increase the range of the fall. Beijing central plains market research department director ZhangDaWei think, in security room under the background of a lot of construction, if eliminate security room more influence, the actual current commodity room house investment has appeared to slip into recession.
 
At the same time, April, real estate development boom index of 95.62, than last month dropped 1.3 points. And in May 2009 for 3 consecutive years since 95.94 the lowest point.
 
"Real estate development boom index has dropped for almost a year, and embodies the macroeconomic regulation in 2011 since the influence of enterprises, to continue to deepen the room. The current better situation, still elusive clinch a deal to the level before room, regulating qi sales still high pressure in May, at the same time, there are still many building dish to push new, expensive stocks to room will have added pressure." Real estate market researcher at home chain ChenXue said.
 
In addition, 5 month of data also shows, 1 ~ 4 months, the national real estate capital source 2.6667 trillion yuan, up 5.1%, than 1 ~ 3 months growth fell by 3.1%. Can see from the month of April, the domestic lending, self-raised funds are annulus comparing drop, only other funds mild rise. Indicate current room enterprises still need more money to rely on sales of collection, especially for more little rooms in enterprises for the loans and the trust financing difficult to expected.
ZhangDaWei analysis, it 限购 control policy executive power and still has a big, in the market, because developers inventory is still too large, at the same time, the future potential supply is still in a higher level, the housing is still does not exist rebound sharply foundation.
 
Energy-efficient appliances New Deal is expected to drive consumption 500 billion
 
The state council premier wen jiabao 16 chaired the standing committee of state council, promote energy saving electrical home appliances products consumption policy measures, decided to arrange finance allowance RMB 26.5 billion, accord with energy conservation standards start promotion air conditioning, flat TV, refrigerators, washing machines, and water heater, promotion period is tentatively set a year;
 
Arrange 2.2 billion yuan support promotion and LED lights energy-saving lamps; Arrange 6 billion yuan support promotion 1.6 liters and the following car emissions energy saving; Arrange 1.6 billion yuan support promotion efficient motor.
 
China international economic exchange center, vice minister of the royal army said consulting research, according to the calculation, the standing committee of state council 16, determined to promote energy conservation product research of consumption policy measures are expected to boosting domestic consumption of about 500 billion yuan.
 
In talking to the standing committee of state council decided to arrange finance allowance of more than 300 yuan move, wang jun said, macro economic growth slowed in the background, a package of measures will help make green subsidies home appliance consumption has become a new economic growth point, stable household electrical appliance industry production decline of momentum, is expected to make China's economic growth before the present low high, WenZhongQiuJin trend.




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