The steel market has the traditional "Golden September and Silver October"saying, autumn construction gold time, speed up the construction project enterprise, steel market consumption see a busy season.
But just the past 9 October, steel mills, traders are exceptionally cold, steel industry experience producing declines your price, wuhan, shazhousteel, leading steel factory continuous cut price, market into the winter in advance. According to the ministry of commerce business forecast monitoring, last week (October 24 to 30,) the domestic steel prices fell 1.6% a week before, the price of steel for 10 weeks has been falling, than in the middle of August, down 9.4%. In addition, sinosteel association data shows, the middle of October the key enterprise crude steel production 15.58 million tons, the estimated 17.997 million tons, daily output of 1.585 million tons and respectively 1.7998 million tons. Now the country's steel production, and compared in the first half fell to ten percent, the steel capacity is restrained severe.
This wheel steel product prices down sharply, is based on China's economic cycle and the results of the adjustment, reflecting China's economy is in descending stage, resulting in steel demand fell back. The economic crisis, the excessive loose fiscal policy, monetary policy, dropping a huge amount of credit, to take the lead in China's economy went out of whack at the same time, also for the late game economy development buried the hidden trouble. Round of economic expansion, to shrink, financial and monetary policies of the punch, increased the economy of China macroeconomic cyclical characteristics, to make Chinese economy has entered a round of deep adjustment period, China's economic experience pain, the adjustment of the steel price also came.
While hard to avoid the economic downturn, but social policy on take much vision. In the last October, four trillion economic stimulus plan into the end, steel market began to ensure room construction bets. The state council launched large-scale security room plans, 2011 plan construction project is 10 million sets of indemnificatory live, had become a big gains of the steel market, there are estimates of 10 million how to reside a room construction, according to each 60 square building area computation, also need 3 trillion investment. But in fact, this is just fine words butter no parsnips. Security room construction, the central and local big differences, so that the society poking fun at way, make a pile dig a hole, a security room commenced. Security room job-stealing, and shipbuilding, machinery and other industries with steel demand dropped sharply in the cases, steel consumption without support, prices plunged.
This round endorsement winter belongs to China. When we talk about the debt crisis, the United States Treasury debt, ignore the own crisis, there has been a recent shots save European public opinion in China, the economy is in Europe and the United States seemed to the brink of collapse. But Europe and the United States steel market performance relative steady. Recent international endorsement has two characteristics, it is the price of vertical fall without China postures down, and the other is a production in balance. Europe, the U.S. and Russia steel market operation is more steady, basic price remain stable. On October 28, CRU global steel price index for 199.9 points, although a September boom season has eased, but compared with the middle of August, maintain stable, including north American market steel price index rose by 2%, the European market index lost 5%.
The other side, the international steel output to maintain steady growth. The world steel association, September 64 major global now countries and regions crude steel production is 123.6 million tons, an increase of 9.7%, down 0.5% month-on-month; But in China after deducting production in September, global crude steel production is 66.867 million tons, the annulus comparing growth of 1.6%.
With domestic know another, the European debt crisis has, but became September world production of the new window, 27 eu nations September of the steel output of 14.97 million tons, 18.7% month-on-month growth, widespread underachieving "the pig five, Italy, Spain, Greece steel output by 84.2% month-on-month, respectively, 23.7% and 365%, an all realized positive growth. Steel production in North America held steady release, in late October, U.S. crude steel capacity utilization of 72.5%. In addition, near November, arcelor mittal, large enterprise announced it will cut production in Europe, but the author is expected, and its later period less than China's steel production strength will be.
The eu's steel production growth, Italy and other countries of the manufacturing steel demand, though that Europe by debt crisis and the financial sector performance is bad, but the entity economy began to recover gradually, manufacturing industry began to appear picks up momentum.
The foreign market looms the awaken of spring, but Chinese steel industry is going through the cold winter. The enterprise be in low profit margins stage, even lower than the bank deposit, sinosteel association statistics, 1-September, 77 key large and medium-sized steel enterprises home sales profit margin is only 2.99%, steel association insiders predict, steel industry in the industry average profit margin only 1.5% or so. As an important base material of steel, prices go up drop, directly reflected the whole economic operation. It is the economic decline, the exposed the domestic steel market insufficient effective demand. At present, our economic operation relatively slow, and in October 2011 China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) is 50.4%, and the annulus comparing a drop of 0.8%. But from the big trend, China's economy with the inertia, will be out of the bottom cycle. As commodity prices fall expected, expected to enhance fine-tuning for tight credit policy will also gradually loose. Use a word, if winter comes, can spring be far behind? The bottom of the price of steel adjustment, along with the economic cycle will went out of whack and appear to bounce back.



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