New York (Reuters)-the United States will get into another recession opportunities in the past month, with nearly one third of rising economy faces some roadblocks, might undermine growth has weakness, Reuters on Wednesday, according to the survey.
In August the Reuters survey of economists of consensus between, the other in the next 12 months of the probability of a us recession from 25% to 31%.
Economists predict the economic recession similar opportunity the last time in four years ago, in September 2007. A year later, the investment bank lehman brothers collapsed and western economy into a big a recession.
Aneta Markowska, the industrial bank economist said, "" economy is dangerous to close to stall speed, no buffer, even moderate impact may disrupt the cycle.
More than 70 economists survey found that respondents cut their growth forecasts, from a month ago, although growth is still expected to tick in the second half after a frustrating the first half of the year.
The second quarter annual rate of economic growth is only 1.0%, experts see it a bit strong in 2012, the growth in the rest of the time slightly improve this year.
Economists expect GDP growth to 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter, less than 2.3%, in the last survey. They cut expected in the fourth quarter from 2.6% to 2.0%.
This suggests that economic recovery, is still vulnerable to crawl, but turbulence.
The increasingly serious debt crisis in the eurozone economy is one of the biggest risk. The politicians come under intense fire to do more to stop the Greek sovereign debt defaults, out of the crisis, and to the eurozone.
President Obama went into battle on Tuesday, the Spanish journalist said, the eurozone leaders need to display market, they are taking a debt crisis of responsibility.
Greece default may have large countries, such as Spain and Italy's a domino effect.
Hiring challenge
From domestic look, the world's largest economy is facing high unemployment, the old and weak consumer confidence and financial markets strongly.
Beginning in 2012 is expected to increase 2.0%, the second half of up to 2.5%, the former. Some optimistic that a new jobs bill President Obama to help the economy recover momentum.
"Obama's work plan may increase in 2012 grew by 3.4% to 3.7% range, if they get through," gay lebagou Janney Montgomery Scott, said chief fixed income strategy.
However, the final results of uncertainty, Obama and republican now fighting for their third year's major budget battle.
With the economy in congress in the summer the debt ceiling improve confidence, which can lead to the United States relegation debate "standard &poor's credit rating was erosion.
Economists also to consumer price closed up expectations. The consumer price index of the average of 3.5% in the third quarter, an increase of 3.3% in the same period, and in the last quarter 3.2%, an increase of 3.1%.
Eliminating food and gasoline, etc, and volatile item is the more the fed pay close attention to the consensus of core inflation--also revised the hair.
In the third quarter of the core consumer price index to 1.8% from 1.7% of the expected 1.9% from the fourth quarter, from 2.1%.
The federal reserve board in 2012 to keep close to zero, the central bank said last month after, it is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, at least in the next two years steady.




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