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Iran economy far from collapse as sanctions tighten

Ahmed hussein, who runs a jewelry store in wealthy dubai miracle consumption ability, he thought during the show he monthly to Tehran, a year after the U.S. sanctions largely frozen Iran's global banking system of Iran.
In the Iranian capital shop crowded. In the good restaurant can find a seat, is difficult. The northern mountainous area in Tehran ski resort, continue to attract Tehran charm and rich.
"Economic sanctions, there is a problem, but it is still work," he said. "It's not so bad, because in the foreign people think".
Sanctions obviously have certain effect, the country's oil revenue has fallen substantially, other trade interrupt, a weak currency has been sent some import prices, some factory imported parts folding, destruction of employment.
But they don't have idea of what Washington "paralysis" the effect. The Iranian government has softened, and the influence of Iran's economy is big different, absorb a lot of punishment.
Therefore, in next week's talks and the world's major powers in almaty, kazakhstan, Iran does not seem likely to feel great pressure back in its controversial nuclear program, the western criminal suspect is a cover, make weapons.
"The government has a very long time to prepare for the economic war," said Mohammed ali sand barney, headquartered in London Iran's political analysts. "If you are talking about collapse, it is not happening."
reserves
Iran's oil and natural gas export, accounting for three-quarters of the total exports last year, down because international sanctions, they may fall further Washington harder to Teheran acquire their pay.
The international energy agency estimates that Iran's oil exports could fall to less than 1 million barrels a day, from January 2.2 million barrels, at the end of 2011, the national economic loss more than $4 billion last year, the revenue losses last week.
This loss is controlled, but, for a nearly $50 billion economy, and Iran in the past year has taken measures to keep the economy on the basis of an emergency, partly offset by a drop, wealth inflows and outflows decrease.
Be banned the import of luxury goods, including foreign cars and mobile phones, state media say the government cuts in subsidies, study abroad students. The export of gold country more difficult to control, make the flight of capital.
The most important thing is, the government presided over by the end of last year in Iran rial about 36500 former stability in the current range, which lost its value against the dollar in the free market about two-thirds of the slides.
It is not clear whether the authorities design slides, Tehran between merchants and short street protests, caused a panic, but the end result is suitable for government, restraint, resist more years of sanctions.
Due to the state control of the petroleum sectors, it can transfer most Iran the rest of the hard currency supply, it hope. It is the use of special exchange center to lower prices to sell dollars, basic food, drugs and other necessities import.
At the same time, the scale of the Iranian people hope to dollars for other purposes - imported luxury, travel abroad or in foreign countries will be their savings - must buy expensive market interest rates. This can reduce the requirement remittance country.
As a result, analysts believe that Iran could avoid foreign payment crisis, even if oil export further to fall. The foreign currency reserves had fallen to about $70-80 million us dollars, more than $100 from us $by the end of 2011, by private economists expected decline may slow down and eventually stop currencies and other emergency policy grasp.
Iran was born economists Wallace Hector of London's Betamatrix consulting company, Emadi said, Iranian officials speech shows that they have found 6 billion dollars as a safe minimum reserve level, and will take further measures, if necessary, inhibit imports to protection level.
"We didn't even near the international balance of payment of the serious situation," he said.
Oil provides nearly two-thirds of government revenue, the national financial sanctions have been hit hard. But, again, weak riyal government aid, let it make money selling its oil dollars private sector much higher than the same period last year.
The international monetary fund (IMF) expected in October, Iran will release's gross domestic product (GDP) this year, 3.9% of the general national budget deficit - can easily stand, if the total government debt only about 9% of GDP.
People's standard of living
Sanctions, but Iran's standard of living, weaken the weak riyal through higher import cost push inflation. For example, the price of chicken, in almost a year tripled, buy from abroad of feed costs.
The official inflation rate is up to 27.4%, in the end of 2012. Including import goods, the actual inflation rate is considered to be about twice as much. A small pot now, nestle in Tehran shop spends about 230000 riyal ($6.30 free market rate), from a few months ago 120000 riyal.
The higher the cost of imports, and low efficiency of management, makes it difficult to get some medicine. The hospital report the drug to treat cancer, diabetes and other diseases of the shortage.
With more expensive imported parts, auto industry, in 2010 set up more than 1.6 million vehicles, have scars. Output by about half, in the past year, thousands of people lost their job, some parts of the factory closed, local media said.
But more nuanced picture. Some companies, such as home appliance manufacturers, this is weakened cheap imports, now more and more intense, because riyal decline, and make them more competitive, sand talabani said.
Iran seek escape from inflation and unable to move their money, the construction of the country, to improve the new home construction and woodworking industry.
These small prosperity, reflected in the gorgeous new car cruising Tehran streets and luxury apartment in rich community. This week, the stock market have reached an all-time high.
Emadi estimate, in some Iran's largest industrial center, because the weak oil and automobile industry, the overall economy is unlikely to shrink about 2% or more than 3%, this year the bleeding.
 



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