Bounce houses. Family atrophy debt. Europe has avoided the financial crackup. Fiscal cliff transaction has been cancelled on the U.S. economy is the most urgent threat.
So, why not economists expected in 2013 strong growth and employment?
Part of the answer is the consent of the congress, and improve the social security tax, for most of us). Part is it didn't do (to prevent growth killed the possibility of political support).
Through the delay painful decided to cut costs, the deal can ensure more conflict and uncertainty, especially for the congress of the United States this year winter have to reach an agreement, in order to improve the government's debt limit. Many companies are likely to expand or employment in this period is still cautious.
A hopeful consensus: if in the coming months, can solve all the budget uncertainty, economists expect growth rebound in the second half of 2013.
"We are in a better place than we are a couple a few days ago, the national association of manufacturers's chief economist," Chad Moutray, said after a day, the United States congress sent President Obama legislation, in order to avoid the sharp increase income tax and cutting government spending. However, "we really don't deal with the debt ceiling or tax reform or welfare spending.
The great depression began five years, the U.S. economy is still hard to speed up. Many economists believe that 2.2% year-on-year drop in 2012 will increase about 2% or less this year. The unemployment rate is still high 7.7%. Few people which is expected to decline this year.
However, in some ways, the strength of the economic construction. The company has cut costs, and has built up close to a record 1.7 trillion dollars in cash. Housing sales price has continued to rise, along with the construction. Recruitment of income has been is not big, but stable. In the 2012 years of car sales in the five years is the best. Just at the end of the holiday shopping season is it fair to middling.
Bernard Baumohl, economic prospects group chief global economists think, lack of final sex budget struggle fundamentally sound economic slowdown.
"What a pity," Baumohl in a research report said on Wednesday. "Companies are eager to increase capital investment, improve recruiting. The family prepare five years pent-up demand release."
Harris (Ethan Harris) said, in the bank of America merrill lynch global economic common director, economy could increase annual rate of 3%, if not all of a sudden and severe spending cuts and tax increases, and with the surrounding hazy budget impasse threats, lynch.
However, congress trading published cleaning and tax, most workers over two years of social security tax cut. Tax shows ascendant trend, from 4.2% to 6.2%. Increase the cost of $50000 of about 1000 yuan to 4500 yuan a year a family has two high wage workers people.
Moody's analysis chief economist Mark praise di (Mark Zandi), calculation in 2013, higher social security tax 0.6% growth will slow. Other tax increase - including the family income more than $450000 in high taxes - will section from the growth of 0.15%, praise dean said.
The congress of the United States trade also delayed decided to cut costs, the military and domestic solutions, including medical insurance and social security. In so doing, it established a greater showdown to improve the government's borrowing limit. Republicans may ask deep cut costs as improve the debt ceiling price. Similar deadlock in 2011, the government, and lead to the edge of the default standard &poor's take the top American Treasury bonds of AAA rating.
Here is a key part of the economy is how to form 2013:
- job opportunities
With further combat imminent tax and spending, many enterprises are likely to increase employment. Congress and the White House may improve the debt limit of $16.4 trillion in February for the start.
Many economists expect employer average increase from 150000 to 175000 jobs, in 2013, about 2011 years and 2012 years of the same speed. This is too weak, quickly reduce the level of unemployment.
About 20000 jobs, praise di estimates that employers will increase this year will more than 1.8 million may join in 2012. That's great, the employer will add an additional 600000 jobs, if not this year's fiscal cliff trading in agreed measures.
The federal reserve policymakers expected, the unemployment rate will drop to 7.4%, by the end of this year, in the best. Economists think that "normal" at a rate of 6% or lower.
- consumer spending
Consumer confidence index December glide, americans are beginning to worry about higher tax by the threat of financial cliff. Confidence to new highs in five years, and promote the slow down the unemployment rate and stable housing rebound. Consumer spending is to promote the motive force of the economic development.
But the deal, in order to avoid in the cliff will not necessarily lit a consumption. Tax will still be working americans, due to high social security tax rates rise nearly 80%.
Economic recession officially ended in 2009 and since June wages are barely keep up with inflation. Social security tax increase will further cut salaries. The job market will continue to stress, there are few enterprises have a big motivation to hand and a raise.
Due to a record low interest rates, the consumer has weakened their debts, the disposable income of about 113%. This is since 2003, the lowest since the mid shares, according to harvard analysis. The user's bank card delinquency rate is in eighteen year low, the American bankers association announced on Thursday.
However, this almost means that people begin to reverse process and improve the credit card shopping. Most of the new spending will have from higher income, Ellen Zentner said, Nomura Securities (Nomura Securities) senior economist.
"We don't mind, once again, let us run credit card," she said.
- house
Economists have almost the same one thing: the housing market will continue to improve.
This part because of the fact that caught a lot of surprise: five years later the real estate bubble burst left a surplus of housing, in many areas, the country does not have enough house. In the end of the year, only 149, 0
 



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