You've heard predict what will happen, if the country in the "fiscal cliff" : economy will atrophy, nervous consumers stop spending, the stock market will crash.
However, the end of these predictions are exaggerated, some professional investors said.
Even if congress and the White House reached an agreement, increase revenue and reduce government spending, it gradually uncover. Recession is not guaranteed.
What is the stock market, more important is, experts think, economic fundamentals.
Said: "historical experience shows that the economy is the economy is doing, total portfolio manager Scott card mark, in the leader capital in Portland, Oregon" political not establish some form of disaster. "
No matter what happens, "fiscal cliff" - sweep the floor to increase taxes and cutting government spending set to take effect on January 1, - dominated headlines and market for next week.
Ap investment experts put forward several big problem.
Q: what will happen between now and budget in the stock market the deadline is December 31?
Market hate uncertainty. If there is no deal next week, the stock is expected to fall.
"We all know that we are here to get some volatility," said mark card. "According to the leaders in Washington some agreement to like as tooth. "
In addition, there are other inspire people to take money market. Some professional investors sell lock income year. Others sell, because investment can enjoy higher interest rates next year.
"It is always a very good year in the market," said Peter diagram, this cooperation, the manager's chase growth and chase GaiZengChang in mutual funds in charlottesville, Virginia standard &poor's 500 index is year-on-year growth of more than 13%, in 2012.
"People may see of uncertainty, and said," I am very happy with, now I set aside some money, sell, "he said.
Q: on January 1, after?
Deal or no deal, many investors don't expect "fiscal cliff" influence, wandering in the stock market for a long time. One important reason for this is that everyone can see the next few months.
"We don't worry too much about," said David heavy, high wealth CEO partner in auburn, indiana "this thing to remember is that hurt investors, hurt market, it is unexpected things."
He added: "everyone has 2008 to their mind burning, they think that fiscal cliff will be ahead of the 2008 event, the events of 2008 is no one see it coming, everybody silly eye. No one will silly eye this."
Heavy said, he will see the fed whether to continue funding to economic policy, housing and unemployment, and other basic factors, to decide how to invest in 2013.
"We are looking for in two key things, the most important thing," he said. "" fiscal cliff" is one of them."
Artio has total return bond fund joint manager Donald high-graded gayle, "cliff", its political influence is greater than the influence to economy, more cautious. He said that if the republicans and the Democrats can't reach a compromise, the world can see it as a sign that the U.S. government is not normal.
"Basically," we really didn't have our common action, '" kui gayle said." "Have to admit that your country is unable to control, is the best way to run the country."
Q: if any processing?
Higher taxes and reduce the influence of government spending will gradually feel is, congress is always could be abolished, this is why many analysts not expect to panic.
For instance, if a kick at a higher tax, workers may get less money in their first salary for a year, so the government may reach a compromise, return money.
"Financial cliff is real cliff - it is more like a $600 billion mountain, will accumulate in the past year," said mark card, refers to the amount of money, may be taken economy from higher taxes and to reduce spending.
Bob phillips, in Indianapolis spectrum management group management partner, and "fiscal cliff" Y2K panic.
"Think of is, in the whole world each computer fault on January 1, 2000, it will be a disaster," phillips said. "I think this is a similar things, it has been established that this view, everything will fall apart, but this is not the case."
Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeffrey starch, says he believes will be "the arrogant" stock, because the government spending cuts, in order to balance the federal budget will be more closely.
He said: "so, if we do not take" cliff diving, it is not suitable for too long a time, the market need a blow, but the economy is itself reset. We will continue to develop forward. "
Q: if you have time on the processing of the market, will take the high?
I think not. Since the stock market has since mid-november, more or less steady rising sign investors have believe lawmakers will compromise. Since November 15,, standard &poor's 500 index has risen more than 5%.
Signal, a successful compromise is considering the stock prices have. It is more important to in 2013 market performance is economic problems.




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